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FELDSTEIN - HORIOKA PARADOKSU: YATIRIM, TASARRUF VE SERMAYE HAREKETLERİ İLİŞKİSİNİN AÇIKLANMASI

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2004
Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper explains an important study for international economics by Feldstein and Horioka on the relation between domestic saving rates and international capital flows or, equivalently, between domestic saving rates and domestic investment. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) regressed the investment ratio against a constant and the saving ratio in a cross section of 16 industrialized countries, which are OECD members, over the period 1960-1974 and found that the coefficient on saving was in the range of 0.85-0.95. They interpreted this finding as indicating that 85-95 % of national savings was invested in the country of origin, which implied a rejection of perfect capital mobility. The basic conclusion of Feldstein and Horioka’s analysis is that an increase in domestic saving has a substantial effect on the level of domestic investment. However, with perfect world capital mobility, there is little or no relation between the domestic investment in a country and the amount of savings generated in that country. This result was know in the literature as the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma Feldstein ve Horioka’nın, yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ile uluslararası sermaye akışı veya benzer şekilde yurtiçi tasarruf oranları ile yurtiçi yatırım oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi ele aldıkları önemli bir çalışmayı açıklamak için hazırlanmıştır. Feldstein ve Horioka (1980) yatırım oranları ile tasarruf oranları arsındaki ilişkiyi, OECD üyesi olan olan 16 sanayileşmiş ülkenin 1960-1974 dönemi verilerini kullanarak “cross section” regresyon analizi ile test etmeye çalışmış ve tasarruflara ilişkin katsayı 0.85-0.95 aralığında hesaplanmıştır. Feldstein ve Horioka’ya göre mükemmel sermaye hareketliliğinin olmadığı bir durumda, ulusal tasarrufların % 85-95’i orijinal ülkede yatırıma dönüştürülmektedir. Feldstein ve Horioka analizinin temel sonucu, yurtiçi tasarruf oranlarındaki bir artış yurtiçi yatırımların seviyesini etkileyecektir. Ancak mükemmel sermaye hareketliliğinin olduğu bir durumda ülkede oluşan tasarruf miktarı ile aynı ülkedeki, yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki çok az ya da hiç olmayacaktır. Bu sonuç ekonomi literatüründe Feldstein- Horioka Paradoksu olarak bilinmektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
183-195
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

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