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TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?

ARE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES EFFECTIVE ON TRADE DEFICITS IN TURKEY?

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Increasing trade imbalances parallel to growing economies take place in literature of economics in recent years. Although there is a number of factors affecting trade balance, an important number of studies focus on government expenditures. In this study, we analyze the relationship between government consumption expenditures and trade imbalance in the period of 1982Q1 – 2010Q3by employing structural breaks and long-run relationship. So we employee KPSS (1992) unit root test, Zivot–Andrews (1992) and Lee–Strazicich (2003) unit root tests with structural break and cointegration test considering structural breaks developed by Kejriwal (2008) and Kejriwal–Perron (2009). Unit root tests find structural breaks in this period. According to results, there is a structural break in 2000Q1. Also, it is more effective during 1990’s. Although the potency of consumption expenditures of government decreases, importance of it on deficits continues.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Son yıllarda ekonomik büyüme ile birlikte artan dış ticaret açıkları önemli bir tartışma konusu olarak iktisat literatüründeki yerini almıştır. Konu ile ilgili çalışmalarda açığın oluşmasında farklı değişkenlerin rolünün olduğu söylense de önemli bir çoğunluğun kamu harcamaları üzerinde yoğunlaştığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise 1982Q1-2010Q3 dönemine ait Türkiye ekonomisinde kamu harcamaları ve dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki yapısal kırılma(lar) ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler incelenerek ortaya konulmuştur. Bu amaçla Kwaitkowski, Phillips, Schmidt ve Shin (1992, KPSS) geleneksel birim kök testi, Zivot-Andrews (1992) ve Lee-Strazicich (2003, 2004) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile birlikte Kejriwal (2008) ve Kejriwal-Perron (2009) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2000’li yılların hemen başında yapısal kırılma bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca kırılma öncesi ve sonrası dönemlere ait uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçları göstermektedir ki:1990’lı yıllarda kamu harcamaları dış ticaret açıkları üzerinde etkili iken, 2000 yılı sonrasındaki dönemde etki azalmıştır.
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