You are here

Home » Content

Seyhan Havzası aylık ortalama akım ve yağış verilerinin trend analizi

Trend analysis of average monthly streamflow and rainfall at seyhan river basin

Journal Name:

  • Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2016

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Trend analysis of hydrometeorological variables has great concern in the recent past because of the attention given to global climate change from the scientific community. Trend analysis can help in better understanding of the changing pattern of the prominent climatic variables in a river basin. Precipitation is a key component of the hydrologic cycle and changes in its pattern would directly influence the water resources of a region, as it affects streamflows, soil moisture and groundwater reserves In this study, the effects of rainfall structure and atmospheric circulation variability on streamflow in the Seyhan River Basin is analyzed. Monthly mean streamflow obtained from two different gauging station and monthly rainfall data observed at the precipitation station within the Seyhan River Basin which is an important basin in Turkey are used to determine the the trend analyses. In the determination of streamflow and rainfall trends, non-linear Mann- Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests are used. The linear slopes of trends are calculated by a technique proposed by Sen. The Mann–Kendall rank correlation test is used to determine the years in which trends begin. From the present analyses it is found that among the studied stations there are decreasing trends in monthly streamflow data in 1801 and 1822 stations for five months, and there are no trend is found in monthly total precipitation data in 17351 and 17802 meteorological stations.
Bookmark/Search this post with
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin önemli su havzalarından biri olan Seyhan Havzası’nın yağış yapısının ve atmosferik sirkülasyon değişiminin akım üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Seyhan havzasında yer alan iki farklı akım gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen aylık ortalama akım değerlerinin ve iki farklı yağış gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen aylık ortalama yağış değerlerinin trend analizi yapılmış ve anlamlı trend varlığının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Trend varlığının belirlenmesinde, lineer olmayan Mann-Kendall ve Spearman’ın Rho testleri, trend eğimlerinin belirlenmesinde Sen’in trend eğim metodu ve trend başlangıç yıllarının belirlenmesinde ise Mann-Kendall sıra korelasyon testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, ele alınan 17351 ve 17802 numaralı meteoroloji gözlem istasyonlarına ait aylık toplam yağış değerlerinde trend belirlenmemiş olup, 1801 ve 1822 numaralı akım gözlem istasyonlarının aylık ortalama verilerinin beş ayında azalan yönde trend varlığı görülmüştür.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastirmax-seyhan-havzasi-aylik-ortalama-akim-yagis-verilerinin-trend-analizi.pdf
  • 2
319
327
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

References: 

Adarsh, S., Janga Reddy, M., "Trend Analysis of
Rainfall in Four Meteorological Subdivisions of
Southern India Using Nonparametric Methods and
Discrete Wavelet Transforms". International
Journal of Climatology, 35(6): 1107-1124, 2015.
Altın, T. B., "Change in Precipitation and
Temperature Amounts over Three Decades in
Central Anatolia, Turkey". Atmospheric and
Climate Sciences, 2(01): 107-125, 2012.
Bahadır, M., Özdemir, M. A., "Climate Trend
Analysis of the Level Changes of Iznik Lake in
Turkey". Journal of Biology and Life Sciences,
2(3): 4-13, 2011.
Beyazıt, M., "İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Olasılık
Yöntemleri", İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Matbaası,
İstanbul, 1996.
Chowdhury, R. K., Beecham, S., Boland, J.,
Piantadosi, J., "Understanding South Australian
Rainfall Trends and Step Changes". International
Journal of Climatology, 35(3): 348-360, 2015.
Erlat, E., Türkeş, M., "Analysis of Observed
Variability and Trends in Numbers of Frost Days
in Turkey for the Period 1950-2010". International
Journal of Climatology, 32(12): 1889-1898, 2012.
Gocic, M., Trajkovic, S., "Analysis of Changes in
Meteorological Variables Using Mann-Kendall
and Sen's Slope Estimator Statistical Tests in
Serbia". Global and Planetary Change, 100: 172-
182, 2013.
Huang, J., Sun, S., Zhang, J., "Detection of Trends in
Precipitation During 1960–2008 in Jiangxi
Province, Southeast China". Theoretical and
Applied Climatology, 2013.
Jain, S. K., Kumar, V., "Trend Analysis of Rainfall
and Temperature Data for India". Current
Science(Bangalore), 102(1): 37-49, 2012.
Karpouzos, D. K., Kavalieratou, S., Babajimopoulos,
C., "Trend Analysis of Precipitation Data in Pieria
Region (Greece) ". European Water Resources
Association, 30: 31-40, 2010.
Kendall, M. G., "Rank Correlation Methods", Charles
Griffin, London, 1975.
Mann, H. B., "Nonparametric Tests against Trend".
Econometrica, 13(3): 245-259, 1945.
Sen, P. K., "Estimates of the Regression Coefficient
Based on Kendall's Tau". Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 63(324): 1379-1389, 1968.
Sneyers, R., "On the Statistical Analysis of Series of
Observations", Secretariat of the World
Meteorological Organization, 1990.
Trajkovic, S., Kolakovic, S., "Wind-Adjusted Turc
Equation for Estimating Reference
Evapotranspiration at Humid European
Locations", 2009.
Yenigun, K., Gumus, V., Bulut, H., "Trends in
Streamflow of the Euphrates Basin, Turkey".
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-
Water Management, 161(4): 189-198, 2008.
Yu, Y.-S., Zou, S., Whittemore, D., "Non-Parametric
Trend Analysis of Water Quality Data of Rivers in
Kansas". Journal of Hydrology, 150(1): 61-80,
1993.
Yue, S., Wang, C., "The Influence of Serial
Correlation on the Mann–Whitney Test for
Detecting a Shift in Median". Advances in Water
Resources, 25(3): 325-333, 2002.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com