You are here

Home » Content

BÜTÇE AÇIĞI HABERLERİ VE FAİZ ORANLARI

BUDGET DEFICIT NEWS AND INTEREST RATES

Journal Name:

  • Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2004

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
A common belief held by the popular press, government officials, International Monetary Fund officials and investors is that persistent budget deficits in Turkey elicit higher interest rates, thus hindering capital formation. In this paper, we examine whether budget deficit news can explain the observed high interest rates in Turkey, using the “announcement effect methodology”. Financial market participants might have three reasons to expect deficits to raise interest rates: (i) deficits may crowd out private investment; (ii) they might be due to an increase in temporary government spending that affects interest rates; and (iii) they might be monetized in the future and cause inflation. The budget deficit news was obtained by reading electronic editions of major Turkish newspapers for the periods 1996-2003. The results suggest that positive relationship between budget deficits and interest rates due to crowding-out.
Bookmark/Search this post with
Abstract (Original Language): 
Türkiye’de süregelen bütçe açıklarının faiz oranlarını yükselttiği ve dolayısıyla sermaye oluşumunu engellediği görüşü popüler basın, hükümet yetkilileri, Uluslararası Para Fonu yetkilileri ve yatırımcılar arasında yaygındır. Bu makalede bildirim etkisi yöntemi kullanılarak Türkiye’deki bütçe açığı haberlerinin gözlenen yüksek faiz oranlarını açıklayıp açıklayamayacağı incelenmektedir. Finansal piyasa aktörleri üç nedenden dolayı bütçe açıklarının faiz oranlarını yükselteceğini bekleyebilirler: (i) bütçe açıkları özel yatırımları dışlayabilir; (ii) bütçe açıkları faiz oranlarını etkileyen geçici devlet harcamalarındaki artıştan dolayı olabilir; (iii) bütçe açıkları gelecekte monetize edilebilir ve enflasyona neden olabilir. Bütçe açığı haberleri, elektronik ortamdaki önemli Türk gazeteleri okunarak 1996-2003 yılları itibariyle toplandı. Sonuçlar bütçe açıkları ile faiz oranları arasındaki pozitif ilişkinin dışlama etkisinden kaynaklandığını göstermektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastirmax-butce-acigi-haberleri-faiz-oranlari.pdf
  • 11
1-19
  • English

REFERENCES

References: 

Balkan, E., Biçer, F. G., Yeldan, A. E. (2002). “Patterns of Financial Capital
Flows and Accumulation in the Post-1990 Turkish Economy”, Presented at
METU Conference on Economics, IV, Ankara, Turkey.
Barro, R. (1974). “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political
Economy, 82:1095-1117.
Beck, Stacie E. (1993). “The Ricardian Equivalence Proposition: Evidence from
Foreign Exchange Markets”, Journal of International Money and Finance,
12:154-169.
Blanchard, O. J. (1984). “Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and
Economic Activity”, NBER Working Paper, No.1265.
Brunner, K. (1986). “Deficits, Interest Rates and Monetary Policy”, Cato
Journal, 709-726.
Darrat, Ali F., and Suliman, M.O. (1991). “Have Budget Deficits and Money
Growth Caused Changes in Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Canada?”,
North American Review of Economics and Finance, 2:69-82.
Cornell, B., and Shapiro, A.C. (1985). “Interest Rates and Exchange Rates:
Some New Empirical Results”, Journal of International Money and Finance,
4:431-442
DeFina, R. (1991). “Does Inflation Depress the Stock Market?”, Business
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Nov/Dec:3-12.
Engel, C., and Frankel, J. (1984). “Why Interest Rates React to Monetary
Announcements: An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market”, Journal
of Monetary Economics, 13:31-39.
Evans, P. (1987). “Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the
United States”, The Journal of Political Economy, 95:34-58.
Feldstein, M. (1986). “Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and Real Interest Rates”,
NBER Working Paper, No. 1970.
Haliassos, M., and Tobin, J. (1990). Handbook of Monetary Economics
Volume II. Netherlands: Elsevier Science Publisers.
Hardouvelis, G. A. (1987). “Macroeconomic Information and Stock Prices”,
Journal of Economics and Business, 39:131-140.
Hoelscher, G. (1986). “New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates”, Journal of
Money, Credit and Banking, 18:1-17.
Kitchen, J. (1996). “Domestic and International Financial Market Responses to
Federal Deficit Announcements”, Journal of International Money and Finance,
15:239-254.
Knot, K. and Haan, J. (1999). “Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates:
Evidence for Germany”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25:559-577.
Miller, V.J. (1992). “Inflation Uncertainty and the Disappearance of Financial
Markets: The Mexican Example”, Journal of Economic Development ,17:131-
152.
Ozatay, F., and Sak, G. (2002), “The 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey,”
Brookings Trade Forum, Presented Forum Paper.
Plosser, I. C. (1982). “Government Financing Decisions and Asset Returns”,
Journal of Monetary Economics, 9:325-352.
Sargent, J.T., and Wallace, N. (1981). “Some Unpleasant Monetarist
Arithmetic”, Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Seater, J. J. (1993). “Ricardian Equivalence”, Journal of Economic Literature,
31:142-190.
Thorbecke, W. (1993). “Why Deficit News Affects Interest Rates”, Journal of
Policy Modeling, 15:1-11.
Watchtel, P., and Young, J. (1987). “Deficit Announcements and Interest
Rates”, AER, 77:1007-1012.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com