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A NOVEL HYBRID APPROACH TO SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING

Journal Name:

  • Istanbul University Journal of Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The knowledge of a day ahead load is necessary for a utility in a competitive electricity market for fuel purchase scheduling, planning for energy transactions and to maintain their power reserve close to the minimum as required by Independent System Operator. Previous researches do not consider the effect of wind direction on load forecasting, however this paper investigates the effect of wind direction and weather event on load requirements and accordingly presents a novel Neuro-Fuzzy based approach to Short term load forecast (STLF) i.e. a day ahead average load forecast utilizing parameters identified as historical load, temperature, weather event (for e.g. fog and snow) and wind direction. Four different input structures, three using Neuro-Fuzzy approach and one using only Neural network (NN) are tested. Among the four input structures, structure utilizing Neuro-Fuzzy approach with wind direction as one of the input parameters gives impressive result, with an average error of 1.735 %. The model is trained and tested on load and weather data pertaining to Norwalk/Stamford in Connecticut Valley Electric Exchange.
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  • 1
1345-1354
  • English

REFERENCES

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Ashish Kumar Srivastava received his B.Tech degree in Electrical Engineering from Institute of Engineering and Technology, Lucknow, (Lucknow University), India in 1991 and M.Tech degree in „Electrical Power System Management‟ from Jamia Millia Islamia (Central University), New Delhi, India in 2008.
His fields of interest include power system operation and application of artificial intelligence techniques in power system.
Tariqul Islam received his MSc Engineering degree in Instrumentation and Control Systems from Aligarh Muslim University, India in 1997 and PhD from the IC Design and Fabrication Center, Department of Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India.
Presently he is working as Associate Professor in Electrical Engineering Department, Jamia Millia Islamia (Central University), New Delhi, India. His current research interests are development of sensors, sensor array, smart sensors and applications of neural networks and fuzzy logic for processing of sensor signals.

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