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İktisadi Büyüme ile Cari İşlemler Bilançosu Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Current Account Balance: The Case of Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
High growth rates, resulting with process of globalization, cause current account deficits by increasing import capacity especially in developing countries. Due to raising the risk of country, increasing current account deficits create adverse effects on the growth process. So, the relationhip between economic development and current account balance of Turkey between 1980 and 2010 are analysed through the use of econometrical methods. Two variables, gross domestic product and current account balance, were included in the analyses. Time-series data related to the variables were tested with ADF unit root test and it was observed that the variables were stable in their level value. In addition, at the end of the Johansen co-integration test applied to these variables, it was realised that the mentioned variables were co-integrated. Granger causality test was employed to determine the causality relationship between the variables and a one-way causality relationship from economic development towards to current account balance was detected.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Küreselleşme süreci ile birlikte ortaya çıkan yüksek büyüme oranları, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ithalat hacmini artırarak cari işlem açıklarına neden olmaktadır. Artan cari açıklar ise ülke riskini yükselterek büyüme süreci üzerinde olumsuz etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, iktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişkiler Türkiye ekonomisi 1980–2010 dönemi için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizlerde, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve cari işlem dengesi olmak üzere iki değişken yer almıştır. Değişkenlere ilişkin zaman serisi verileri ADF birim kök testi ile sınanmış ve değişkenlerin seviye değerlerinde durağan oldukları gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca bu değişkenlere uygulanan Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda, söz konusu değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik oldukları sonucuna varılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisini belirleyebilmek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan cari işlemler dengesine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.
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