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Türkiye’de Ticari Açıklık, Kredi Hacmi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkiler: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi

Relationship between Trade Openness, Credit Volume and Economic Growth in Turkey: Time Series Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks

Journal Name:

  • Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2016
DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.18074/cnuiibf.297

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, the relationship between trade openness, credit volume, and, economic growth is analyzed for 1989-2014 periods for Turkey and by multiple structural breaks unit root test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al (2009), Toda-Yamamoto causality test, multiple structural breaks co-integration test of Maki (2012), and dynamic ordinary least squares method. In the causality test, it is concluded that bi-directional causality relationship between growth and credit volume on the one hand and between growth and real interest rate on the other hand exists through a one-way direction of causality from trade openness to credit expansion and from credit expansion to reel interest rate. It is found out that a long-term relation exists among the variables in co-integration test of Maki. In the co-integration coefficient, which is estimated by dynamic ordinary least squares method, it is ascertained that while credit volume increases economic growth, interest rate and trade openness decreases it.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, ticari açıklık, kredi hacmi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Türkiye için 1989-2014 dönemi kapsamında, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Nedensellik testinde, ekonomik büyüme ile kredi hacmi ve ekonomik büyüme ile reel faiz oranı değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, nedenselliğin yönünün ticari açıklıktan kredi hacmine doğru olan ve kredi hacminden reel faiz oranına doğru olan tek yönlü nedensellik sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır. Maki eşbütünleşme testinde değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemiyle tahmin edilen eşbütünleşme katsayılarında ise ekonomik büyümeyi kredi hacminin arttırdığı, faiz oranının ve ticari açıklığın azalttığı sonuçları bulunmuştur.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
471
499
  • Turkish

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