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Para Politikası Etkilerinin Ölçümü: Türkiye Örneği

Measurement of the Monetary Policy's Effects: The Case of Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This study attemts to test real effects of monetary policies employing Cochrane (1998) method by using Turkish data for the period of January 1988-December 2003. The findings reveal that both unexpected and expected monetary policies have real effects. From the viewpoint of ecomic theories, the findings are in line with the Keynesian argument contrary to the Classiscal Theory. The results are not supportive to the Rational Expectation Theory, when the real effects of monetary policy are taken as both expected and unexpected. The study also indicate that both the expected and unexpected monetary shocks appears to have an effect on the real output. The size of the effect varies depending on the expectation of economic agents. As the degree of expectation increases (1), the size of the effect increases, correspondingly. The maximum effect of monetary policies appears when 1 =1.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için para politikasının reel etkileri, Ocak 1988-Aralık 2003 dönemi verileriyle VAR'ı temel alan Cochrane (1998) yöntemi kullanılarak sınanmıştır Elde edilen bulgulara göre, hem öngörülmeyen hem de öngörülen para politikasının reel etkileri olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sonuç iktisat kuramları açısından değerlendirildiğinde; Keynesgil geleneğin savlarının desteklendiğini, Klasik geleneğin savlarının ise destek bulmadığını göstermektedir. Para politikasının reel etkileri öngörülen ve öngörülmeyen ayrımına göre analiz edildiğinde ise, Rasyonel Beklentiler Kuramı'nın lehine kanıtların bulunmadığı sonucuna varılmaktadır. Çünkü, çalışmada hem öngörülen hem de öngörülmeyen para politikalarının reel çıktı üzerinde etkileri ortaya çıkmıştır. Etkinin büyüklüğü iktisadi aktörlerin, yani kamunun, uygulanan para politikalarını öngörmelerine bağlı olarak değişmiştir. Öngörü derecesi arttıkça, yani X parametresinin değeri büyüdükçe etkinin değeri de artmıştır. Para politikasının en büyük etkisi X=1 durumunda gerçekleşmiştir.
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