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İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası ve “Dow Jones Industrial” Arasındaki İlişki: Eşbütünleşme Analizi

The Relation Between The Istanbul Stock Exchange And The Dow Jones Industrial: The Cointegration Analysis

Journal Name:

  • Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2012

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, the relationship between the İstanbul Stock Exchange and the Dow Jones Industrial is analyzed by taking into consideration the closing prices for weekly in the period between 05.01.2001-30.12.2010. The causal relationship between the series is analyzed through the Granger test, long-short term and cointegration analysis; the Johansen and VEC methods. Research findings points out that the DJI causes the Granger of the ISE for three-lags. According to the results of the cointegration analysis, the series act together in the long term, that is, they are cointegrated. In the short term, the error correction term works and for three terms the DJI significantly affects the ISE.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası ve Dow Jones Industrial arasındaki ilişki, 05.01.2001-30.12.2010 dönemi haftalık endeks kapanış fiyatları temel alınarak araştırılmıştır. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi; Granger testi, uzun-kısa dönem ve eşbütünleşme analizleri; Johansen ve VEC yöntemleri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, üç gecikme için DJI’nın İMKB’nin Granger nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Eşbütünleşme analizinin sonuçlarına göre, seriler uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmekte yani eşbütünleşiktir. Kısa dönemde hata düzeltme teriminin çalıştığı ve üç dönem boyunca DJI’nın İMKB’yi anlamlı şekilde etkilediği görülmüştür.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • Turkish

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REFERENCES

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