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YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA TÜRKİYE İÇİN SAVUNMA HARCAMALARI İLE GSMH ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Analyzing the Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and GNP for Turkey Under Structural Breaks

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, we analyze the relationship between gross national product (GNP) and defense expenditures over the period 1950-2006 for Turkey. We use Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Gregory-Hansen cointegration method to analyze the unit root characteristics of the series and also the long-run relationship between the series by allowing possible structural breaks. Moreover, we use Toda-Yamamoto test to analyze the causal relationship between the series. Our results show that the series are not stationary and there is not any long-run relationship between them, but there is a unidirectional causal relationship from GNP to defense expenditures.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada yapısal değişime izin veren Zivot-Andrews birim kök testinin yanı sıra Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak 1950-2006 yılları arasında Türkiye’de GSMH (Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla) ile savunma harcamaları arasında bir ilişkinin olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonrasında her iki serinin seviyesinde durağan olmadığı ve aynı zamanda aralarında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Yapılan Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi sonrasında ise GSMH’dan savunma harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır.

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