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TÜRKİYE’DE REEL DÖVİZ KURUNU BELİRLEYEN UZUN DÖNEMLİ ETKENLER

LONG-RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE TURKISH REAL EXCHANGE RATE

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This study analysis the long-run main determinants of the real exchange rate in Turkey. The choice of econometric technique used to estimate the model was important because the regressors in the model appeared to be a mixture of I(0) and I(1) processes. Thus ARDL bounds testing approaches to cointegration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates. The findings are that net foreign assets, income differantial between Turkey and a weighted average of major trading patterns, M2 money supply, trade balance and terms of trade influence the real exchange rate in Turkey.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki reel döviz kurunu belirleyen uzun dönemli temel etkenleri analiz etmektedir. Modeldeki bağımsız değişkenler I(0) and I(1) sürecinin bir karışımı olduğu için, modelin tahmininde kullanılan ekonometri tekniğinin seçimi önemlidir. Bu nedenle reel döviz kurunun determinantlarının tahmininde eşbütünleşme analizine ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bulgular; net yabancı sermaye girişi, Türkiye ile önemli dış ticaret ortaklarının gelirlerinin ağırlıklı ortalaması arasındaki fark, M2 para arzı, dış ticaret dengesi ve ticaret haddinin uzun dönemde reel döviz kurunu etkilediğini ortaya koymuştur.
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