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TÜRKİYE’DEKİ BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ ULUSAL TASARRUFLARA ETKİLERİ

THE IMPACT OF BUDGET DEFICITS ON NATIONAL SAVIMG IN TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This study analyses the effect of government budget deficits on national saving in Turkey using annual data from 1970 to 2003. In the analysis a model that includes budget deficits, money supply, real interest rate and the proportion of working age population to total population to explain national saving was used. After examining the time series properties of the data, the model is estimated with the method of ARDL to cointegration. In the longrun, the overall results show that a sinificant increase in budget deficits tend to decrease the national saving.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin 1970-2003 yılları arasındaki döneme ilişkin yıllık verilerini kullanarak; bütçe açıklarının ulusal tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Analizde tasarrufları açıklamak için; bütçe açıkları, M2 para arzı, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun toplam nüfusa oranı olan demografik değişkeni ve reel faiz oranını kapsayan bir model kullanılmıştır. Verilere ilişkin zaman serilerinin incelenmesinden sonra, model eşbütünleşmeye ARDL yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, uzun dönemde bütçe açıklarındaki bir artışın ulusal tasarrufları istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde azalttığını göstermektedir.
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