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İklim değişikliği ekseninde maksimum akım verilerindeki trendler ve baraj güvenliğine etkisinin izlenmesi

Trend analysis of maximum flows and its impact on spillway safety

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Dams are huge engineering structures for different aims. In this regard, dams also contain important risks. These risks can be seen as different types of failures. One of the major reason of dam failures is spillway inadequacy. So, the design, construct and operating of spillways are very important. The flood discharge capacity is used for spillway design as input parameter and it is sensitive under climate change effects or other factors. So, it must be evaluated by the view of trend analysis of maximum flow data. In addition to observe the trends, risks of spillways must be evaluated by risk analysis using same observed maximum flow data. In this study, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests are used for investigating the existence of trends for selected dams in Turkey. Then, the MFOSM (Mean Value First Order Second Moment) and AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment) methods are used for analyzing the possible spillway risks that affected from changing maximum flows. Using maximum flow parameters, it is reported existence the trends and safety level of spillways for selected dams. That results show us, the process of observation of updated maximum flow data and its effect on risk level for dam safety using effective and modern methods is crucial.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Barajlar değişik amaçlarla inşa edilen büyük mühendislik yapılarıdır. Barajların büyük boyutları büyük riskleri de beraberinde getirmektedir. Baraj hasarlarının büyük bir kısmı yetersiz temel ve dolusavak eksikliklerinden kaynaklanmakta özellikle dolusavak problemlerinin temel yetersizliklerine de neden olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu durum dolusavakların her aşamada üzerinde titizlikle durulması gereken elemanlar olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolusavak tasarımındaki temel zorluk maksimum taşkın verisinin kestirilmesindeki güçlüktür. Stokastik özellikler gösteren söz konusu parametre iklim değişikliği etkisi ile daha ekstrem değerler alabilmektedir. Bu durum risk analizlerinin önemini arttırmıştır. Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin maksimum akım verileri üzerindeki olası etkileri incelenmiş ve iklim değişikliğinin seçilmiş bazı barajlara ait akarsular üzerinde bir trend etkisi olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Daha sonra iklim değişikli etkisi altında seçilmiş barajların dolusavakları için risk analizleri gerçekleştirilerek barajların risk durumu ortaya konulmuştur. Ayrıca geçmişte yapılan bazı çalışmalar referans alınarak riskin zaman içindeki değişimi de incelenmiştir.
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