You are here

Home » Content

Türkiye İçin Enflasyonu Hızlandırmayan İşsizlik Oranı (NAIRU) Tahmini

Estimating Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate Of Unemployment (NAIRU) For Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2012

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, time varying NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) is estimated with Kalman filter approach using model similar to Gordon’s (1997) triangle model for Turkey. NAIRU estimates are obtained not much volatile for the estimation period 2000:1–2007:4. NAIRU rate estimated in this study is higher from OECD average calculated by Turner et al. (2001).
Bookmark/Search this post with
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Gordon’un (1997) üçlü modeline benzer bir model kullanılarak Kalman filtresi yaklaşımıyla zamanla değişen NAIRU (enflasyonu hızlandırmayan işsizlik oranı) tahmini yapılmaktadır. Araştırma dönemi (2000:1– 2007:4) için fazla dalgalanmayan bir NAIRU tahmini elde edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen NAIRU değerleri Turner vd. (2001) tarafından hesaplanan OECD ortalamalarından yüksektir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastrmx_190707_27_pp_71-83.pdf
  • 1
71-83
  • Turkish

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

References: 

Ball, L., Mankiw, N. G. (2002) The NAIRU in Theory and Practice, NBER
Working Paper, W8940.
Batini, N., Greenslade, J. (2003) “Measuring the UK Short-Run NAIRU”,
External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 12.
Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Tamarit, C. (2005)
“Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A
univariate approach” Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (2005) 584–603.
Estrada, A. I. , Hernando, I., Lopez-Salido, J. D. (2000) “Measuring the
NAIRU in the Spanish Economy”, Banco de Espana WP No. 0009.
Fabiani, S., Mestre, R. (2001) “A System Approach for Measuring the
EURO Area NAIRU”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 65.
Ferreira, A., Aguirre, A., Gomes, F. (2003) “Estimates of the NAIRU for
Brazil using the Ball-Mankiw Approach”, Série CEPE Working Paper
Temurlenk-Başar/Türkiye İçin…
82
Friedman, M. (1968), The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic
Review, March, no.1
Gordon, R. J. (1997), “The time-varying NAIRU and its implications for
economic policy”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1), Winter 1997, pp.
11-32.
Gordon, R. J. (1998), “Foundations of the Goldilocks economy: supply
shocks and the time-varying NAIRU”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Vol. 2, pp. 297-346.
Laubach, T. (2001) “Measuring the Nairu: Evidence from Seven
Economies, “Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics”, Vol. 83, No. 2,
218-231.
Madsen, J. B. (2005) Empirical Estimates of the NAIRU, LABOUR 19 (3)
563–593.
Modigliani, F., Papademos, L. (1975), Monetary Policy for the Coming
Quarters: The Conflicting Views, The New England Review, March- April, 2-
35. Reprinted in: The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, (1980), vol. 3,
MIT Press, Cambridge
Phelps, E. S. (1967), Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal
Unemployment over Time, Economica, vol. 34, no. 135, 254-81
Rodenburg, P. (2007) Derived Measurement in Macroeconomics: Two
Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered, Tinbergen Institute
Discussion Paper, TI 2007-017/1.
Stephanides, G. (2006) “Measuring the NAIRU: Evidence from the
European Union, USA and Japan”, International Research Journal of Finance
and Economics, Issue 1, 29-35.
Szeto, K. L., Guy, M. (2004) “Estimating a New Zealand NAIRU”, New
Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/10.
Tobin, J. (1980), Stabilization Policy Ten Years after, Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, No. 1, 19-71
Tobin, J. (1997), Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU
versus Natural Rate, Cowles Foundation Paper 1150, Yale University, New
Haven
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi,
Cilt:27, Sayı:1, Yıl:2012, ss.71-83.
83
Turner, D., Boone, L., Giorno, C., Meacci, M., Rae, D., Richardson, P.
(2001) Estimating the Structural Rate of Unemployment for the OECD
Countries, OECD Economic Studies No. 33, 2001/II
www.tuik.gov.tr

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com