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Sürekli Gelir Hipotezinin Alternatif Bir Testi: Zamanlararası Tüketim Dalgalanmaları, Ulusal Nakit Akımı ve Cari İşlemler Açıkları

An Alternative Test of Permanent Income Hypothesis: Intertemporal Consumption Fluctations, National Cash Flow and Current Account Deficits

Journal Name:

  • Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, an intertemporal smoothing model of Turkey’s current account is estimated, and its repayment capacity is examined to predict developments in Turkey’s external performance. In the model, the current account is viewed as a buffer through which private agents can smooth consumption over time in response to temporary disturbances to output, investment, government expenditure. Empirical results indicate that Turkey which consumes more than its permanent cash flow has foregone future consumption in favor of present consumption. Turkey’s intertemporal consumption does not fluctuate on its optimal path. In context of the actual and optimal foreign debt obligations, the estimation results reveal that the solvency condition is not satisfied for the Turkish economy.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin cari işlemler hesabının zamanlararası tüketim dalgalanma modeli tahmin edilmiş ve Türkiye’nin dış performansındaki gelişmeleri tahmin etmek için geri ödeme yeteneği kapasitesi incelenmiştir. Modelde, cari işlemler hesabı hâsıla, yatırım ve kamu harcamalarına geçici şoklar karşısında özel kişilerin tüketimlerini dalgalandırabildikleri tampon olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin cari tüketim lehine gelecekte yapacağı tüketimden vazgeçtiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’nin cari tüketimi optimal yolunda dalgalanmamaktadır. Gerçekleşen ve optimal dış borç yükümlülükleri kapsamında, elde edilen tahmin sonuçları Türkiye ekonomisinde geri ödeme yeteneği koşulunun sağlanamadığını ortaya koymaktadır.
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  • 4
601-609
  • Turkish

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