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Türkiye Ekonomisinde Verimlilik, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi

An Analysis of Causality Among Productivity, Export and Import in Turkish Economy

Journal Name:

  • Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

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Keywords (Original Language):

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This study attempts to investigate the relationship between foreign trade and productivity for Turkish Economy in the period after 1980, witnessed a structural transformation in foreign trade and industrialization policies. In this study, at first, we examine the relationship among exports, imports and total factor productivity of Turkey by using the annual data for the period of 1980-2007. In addition, we examine the relations among exports, imports and the index of productivity per worker in manufacturing using quarterly time series data for the period of 1988Q1-2006Q4. Our findings indicate that there is a long run relationship among exports, imports and productivity, regardless of productivity indicator. In addition, the results indicate that imports and exports tend to have positive impact on productivity growth in the long run. The causality results suggest that both export and import growth contributes to productivity growth and thus, the expansion of trade is an integral part of productivity growth. The long-run results show that there is a bi-directional causal effect from exports to productivity growth; thereby suggesting that there is an export-led productivity growth in Turkish economy. However, significant causal effects were also found from imports to productivity growth, suggesting import-led productivity growth. We interpret these results as strongly supportive of the role of endogenous growth models in explaining continuous growth.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde dış ticaret ve sanayileşme politikalarında yapısal bir dönüşüme gidildiği 1980 sonrası dönemde, dış ticaretin verimlilik ile olan ilişkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak, 1980-2007 arası dönemi kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak, ihracat, ithalat ve toplam faktör verimliliği (TFV) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmada daha sonra, 1998Q1-2006Q4 dönemlerini kapsayan üçer aylık veriler ile, ihracat, ithalat ve imalat sanayi işgücü başına verimlilik endeksi arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, ihracat, ithalat ve verimlilik arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca, ihracat ve ithalatın her ikisi de uzun dönemdeki verimlilik artışına pozitif yönlü katkıda bulunmaktadır. Nedensellik sonuçlarının ortaya koyduğu ihracat ve ithalatın verimlilik üzerindeki pozitif yönlü etki, dış ticaret genişlemesinin verimlilik artışının önemli bir parçası olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada bulunan ihracattan verimliliğe doğru iki yönelik nedensellik sonucu, Türkiye ekonomisinde ihracata dayalı verimlik büyümesine işaret etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, ithalat ve verimlilik artışı arasında da önemli derecede ilişki bulunması, ithalata dayalı verimlik büyümesini göstermektedir. Bu durumu sürekli büyümeyi açıklamada, içsel büyüme modellerinin rolünü destekleyici sonuçlar elde edildiği şeklinde yorumlanabilir.
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