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DIS BORÇLARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEGİ

THE EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL DEBTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Less developed and developing countries have been facing some restrictions in the way to achieve the level of economic growth that they plan. Among these, the most serious restriction is the insufficiency of domestic savings, which are supposed to finance the investments. Besides, in less developed and developing countries, relatively-low export earnings cause scarcity of foreign exchange. In order to overcome these restrictions and so achieve a higher rate of growth, these countries often utilize external loans. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between foreign debt and economic growth. Most empirical studies indicate a negative correlation between foreign debt and economic growth, especially in those countries whose foreign debts are relatively high. This study, examines the correlation between foreign debt and economic growth in Turkish economy. Toward this objective, it uses the economic indicators of Turkey between 1968 and 2005. Results of the regression analysis demonstrate that foreign debts in Turkey negatively affect economic growth and therefore Turkey is facing the problem of overhang, that is, excessive debts. This conclusion suggests that the amount of foreign debt should be reduced so as to increase the level of economic growth in Turkey.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Az gelismis ve gelismekte olan ülkeler arzuladıkları ekonomik büyüme hızına ulasmada çesitli kısıtlarla karsı karsıyadırlar. Bunlardan en önemlisi yatırımları finanse edecek olan iç tasarrufların yetersizligidir. Ayrıca bu ülkelerde ihracat gelirlerinin düsük olması döviz kıtlıgına neden olmaktadır. Az gelismis ve gelismekte olan ülkeler bu kısıtları asarak yüksek büyüme hızlarına ulasmak için dıs borçlanmaya sık basvurmaktadırlar. Fakat literatürde dıs borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki iliski tartısmalıdır. Yapılan ampirik çalısmaların büyük bir kısmında yüksek dıs borca sahip ülkelerde dıs borç ile ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif bir iliski tespit edilmistir. Bu çalısmada, dıs borç ve ekonomik büyüme iliskisi Türkiye ekonomisi açısından ele alınmıstır. Çalısmada, Türkiye için 1968-2005 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıstır. Yapılan regresyon analizi sonucunda Türkiye’deki dıs borçların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip oldugu dolayısıyla borç fazlası sorunu ile karsı karsıya oldugu sonucuna ulasılmıstır. Bu sonuç, ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırmak için ülkenin dıs borçlarının azaltılması gerektigi seklinde yorumlanabilir.

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