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Türkiye’de Phillips Eğrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama

An Applcation on Phillips Curve in Turkey

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Abstract (2. Language): 
The popularity of Phillips Curve dates back to the turn of 1960s, it was being applied at varying levels in several countries. Samuelson and Solow (1960) has changed the content of Phillips Curve by using inflation rate instead of the change in money wages. Therefore, Phillips Curve has become an analysis tool explaining the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate. The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of Philips Curve in the economy of Turkey .The study researched the stability of series. Then, it analyzed whether there is any long run relation between cointegration test and the series or not. The research made estimations with LSM method by using the model of Blanchard and Gali (2007). According to results, it has been determined that the analysis of Phillips Curve is not valid for long run in the economy of Turkey but there exists a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in short run.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Phillips Eğrisi’nin popülaritesi 1960’lı yılların başına tekabül etmekte, o dönemden itibaren değişen derecelerde birçok ülkede uygulanmaktadır. Samuelson ve Solow (1960) parasal ücretlerdeki değişme yerine enflasyon oranını kullanarak Phillips Eğrisi’nin içeriğini değiştirmişlerdir. Böylece, Phillips Eğrisi işsizlik oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi açıklayan bir analiz aracı olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı,1970-2010 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Phillips Eğrisi’nin geçerliliğini Türkiye ekonomisi açısından sınamaktır. Analizde, önce serilerin durağanlığı araştırılmış sonra eşbütünleşme testi ile seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin var olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Ampirik kısımda Blanchard ve Gali’nin (2007) modeli kullanılarak EKK yöntemiyle tahminde bulunulmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar neticesinde, Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun dönemde Phillips Eğrisi analizinin geçerli olmadığı ancak kısa dönemde enflasyon ile işsizlik arasında bir trade-off’un var olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
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