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Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange

Journal Name:

  • European Journal of Economic and Political Studies

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Oil price is one of the most important economic factors directing the world economy. A small change in oil prices has positive or negative affects on all the economic factors. Aim of this study is to investigate the affects of oil price changes on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) 100 composite index, services index, industrial index and technology index of ISE. Long-run relationship is tested by Cointegration tests and short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). According to the results of the study, 32.71 % of the forecasting error variance of industrial index and 16.40% is explained by crude oil prices of the forecasting error variance of ISE 100 index. About the other indices; 12.60 % of the forecasting error variance of services index, 11.82 % of the forecasting error variance of financial index and 5.38 % of the forecasting error variance are explained by crude oil prices. Consequently, investors purposing to invest in ISE Market should consider the oil prices and especially investors of ISE industrial index and ISE 100 index should follow the developments in crude oil prices.
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  • 2
109-123
  • Turkish

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