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Dramın Boyutlarının Ölçümü: Terörizmin Sosyo-Ekonomik Belirleyicilerinin Coğrafi Ağırlıklı Regresyon Analizi

Measuring the Extents of Drama: A Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis of the Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In the study, the socio-economic determinants of terrorism are examined using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis in the context of 81 provinces in Turkey. Firstly, on the purpose of investigating the validity of convergence process among the provinces and examining the effects of terrorism on the convergence process, the four regression models of convergence are used. The results of unconditional and conditional convergence analysis show that divergence process among the provinces is dominant and that terrorism accelerates divergence process. Secondly, the model estimation findings point out that the GWR model promotes the model fitting compared to global estimation coefficients. The outcomes of the analysis providing the non-linear relationship between the terrorism, income and democracy show that the roots of terrorism are stem from several factors in Turkey. In general, it is observed that the level of income, population, unemployment, foreign trade, inflation, poverty, inequality, crime rate, democracy, ethnic heterogeneity, residential instability and geographic location have a positive impact of terrorism while the level of education, consumption, hopefulness, happiness and military intervention have a negative effect on terrorist activity.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 81 il bazında terörizmin sosyo-ekonomik belirleyicileri Coğrafi Ağırlıklı Regresyon (GWR) analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. İlk olarak, iller arasında yakınsama sürecinin geçerliliğini ve terörizmin bu süreç üzerindeki etkisini araştırabilmek amacıyla dört yakınsama regresyonundan yararlanılmıştır. Koşulsuz ve koşullu yakınsama analiz sonuçları, iller arasında ıraksama sürecinin baskın olduğunu ve terörizmin ıraksama sürecini hızlandırdığını göstermiştir. İkinci olarak, model tahmin sonuçları, global tahmin katsayılarına kıyasla GWR analizinin modellerin uyum düzeyini artırdığını göstermiştir. Terörizm ile gelir ve demokrasi arasında lineer-olmayan ilişkilerin varlığını kanıtlayan analiz bulguları, Türkiye’de terörizmin temel sosyo-ekonomik kökenlerinin çeşitli etkenlerden kaynaklandığını göstermiştir. Genel olarak; gelir, nüfus, işsizlik, ticaret, enflasyon, yoksulluk, eşitsizlik, suç oranı, demokrasi, etnik ayrımcılık, yerleşik istikrarsızlığı ve coğrafik faktörlerin terörizm üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu gözlenmesine karşın; eğitim, tüketim, umut, mutluluk ve askeri müdahale düzeyinin ise negatif yönlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya konmuştur.

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