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Jevons Paradoksu: Enerji Etkinliği ve Rebound Etkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Jevons Paradox:An Econometric Analysis on Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effect

Journal Name:

  • Fiscaoeconomia

Publication Year:

  • 2018
DOI: 
10.25295/fsecon.2018.01.004

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, the effects of energy efficiency, rebound effect, on energy production, consumption, saving, import as well as inflation and current account deficit are examined using time series analysis in the period of 1967-2015 in Turkish economy. Firstly, in order to determine the stationary level of the variables ADF and PP unit root tests are used and the results show that all of the variables considered within the model are stationary at the first difference level. Second, the finding of Johansen-Juselius cointegration analyze reveals the existence of long-run relationships among variables, and Granger causality analysis reflects at least the validity of one-way causal links among variables. The findings of the VEC analysis point out that the Jevons Paradox or rebound effect is valid in the Turkish economy, which means that energy consumption rises as energy efficiency and production increases. In addition, the findings show that depending on increasing energy consumption energy import level rises and therefore current account deficit and inflation begin to deteriorate, also.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, enerji etkinliği olarak ifade edilen rebound etkisinin enerji üretimi, tüketimi, tasarrufu ve ithalatının yanı sıra enflasyon ile cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkileri 1967-2015 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisi itibariyle zaman serisi analizleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. İlk olarak, değişkenlerin durağanlık bilgilerinin tespit edilebilmesi için ADF ve PP birim kök testleri kullanılmış ve sonuçlar, model kapsamında değerlendirilen değişkenlerin birinci fark düzeyinde durağan olduğunu göstermiştir. İkinci olarak, Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme test sonuçları değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin geçerli olduğunu yansıtmış ve Granger nedensellik bulguları ise değişkenler arasında en azından tek yönlü nedensellik bağlarının geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. VEC modeli analiz sonuçları, enerji verimliliği ve üretimindeki artışa bağlı olarak enerji tüketiminin arttığını ifade eden Jevons Paradoksu ya da rebound etkisinin Türkiye ekonomisinde geçerli olduğunu göstermiştir. İlaveten tahmin bulguları, enerji tüketimindeki artış doğrultusunda enerji ithalat düzeyinin yükseldiğini ve böylece cari işlemler açığı ile enflasyonun bozulma eğiliminde olduğunu da yansıtmıştır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • Turkish

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

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