You are here

Ankara’da Ölçülen Yıllık Maksimum YağıĢların Bölgesel Frekans Analizi

Regional Frequency Analysis for Annual Maxima Precipitation Data Measured in Ankara Province

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, regional frequency analysis of precipitation data is carried out through methods of Lmoments in Ankara province. Annual maxima precipitation series are formed using daily precipitation records obtained from 32 rainfall gauging station. Firstly, whole stations are assumed one region and then stations are split up three region using cluster analysis due to discordant stations. A set of analysis is carried out through index-flood procedure and regional homogeneity is obtained and suitable probability distribution is selected for each region and probable design precipitation values are estimated for various return periods (T year= 2, 5, 10, 25 and 100) via regional L-moment algorithm. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are applied and regional growth curve components are obtained and absolute bias, bias and root mean square errors (RMSE) of estimated quantiles are computed for assessment of the accuracy of estimated precipitation quantiles.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu araĢtırmada Ankara ilinde meydana gelen yağıĢların L moment yöntemleri ile bölgesel frekans analizi gerçekleĢtirilmiĢtir. Bu amaçla 32 yağıĢ gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen günlük yağıĢ miktarlarından yararlanarak yıllık maksimum yağıĢ dizileri oluĢturulmuĢtur. Bölgesel analizlere istasyonların tümü bir bölge kabul edilerek baĢlanmıĢ, ancak istasyonlardaki düzensizlikten dolayı Ankara ili kümeleme analizi yardımıyla üç bölgeye ayrılmıĢtır. Gösterge taĢkın yöntemi yoluyla gerçekleĢtirilen bir dizi analizler sonucunda bölgelere göre homojenlik sağlanmıĢ, her bölge için uygun bir olasılık dağılımı saptanmıĢ ve bölgesel L moment algoritması ile çeĢitli tekrarlanma sürelerinde (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 ve 100 yıl) muhtemel tasarım yağıĢları tahmin edilmiĢtir. Tahmin edilen yağıĢ miktarlarının doğruluğunun değerlendirilmesi amacıyla Monte Carlo simülasyon tekniği uygulanmıĢ ve her bölge için büyüme eğri bileĢenleri elde edilerek, tekrarlanma tahminlerinin mutlak taraflılık, taraflılık ve ortalama karekök hataları (RMSE) hesaplanmıĢtır.

REFERENCES

References: 

Adamowski, K., Alila, Y. and Pilon, P. J. 1996. Regional Rainfall Distribution for Canada. Atmospheric Research, 42, 75-88.
Anlı, A. S. 2009. Ankara'da Meydana Gelen Yağmurların L moment Yöntemleri ile Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. Ankara Ünv., Fen Bilimleri Enst., Tarımsal Yapılar ve Sulama Anabilim Dalı, Doktora Tezi, 264s.
Anlı, A. S., Yürekli, K. ve Apaydın, H. 2008. Samsun Ġlinde Gözlenen Ekstrem YağıĢların Gösterge TaĢkın Yöntemi ile BölgeselleĢtirilmesi, V. Su forumu, Sel, TaĢkın ve Heyelan Konferansları, 24–25 Temmuz, DSI, Samsun.
Anli, A. S., Apaydin, H. and Ozturk, F. 2007. Regional Flood Frequency Estimation for The Göksu River Basin through L-moments. International River Basin Management Conference, State Hydraulic Works, 22-24 March, Gloria Golf Resort Hotel, Belek, Antalya.
Anonim, 1975. Flood Studies Report, Vol. 1. Natural Environment Research Council, London.
Dalrymple, T. 1960. Flood Frequency Analyses. Water Supply Paper 1543-A, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va.
Eslemian, S. S. and Feizi, H. 2007. Maximum Monthly Rainfall Analysis Using L-moments for an Arid Region in Isfahan Province, Iran. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46, 494-503.
Gordon, A. D. 1981. Classification: Methods for The Exploratory Analysis Of Multivariate Data. Chapman and Hall, London.
Greenwood, J. A., Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C. and Wallis, J. R. 1979. Probability Weighted Moments: Definition and Relation to Parameters of Several Distributions Expressable in Inverse Form. Water Resources Research, 15, 1049-1054.
Guttman, N. B. 1993. The Use of L-moments in The Determination of Regional Precipitation Climates. Journal of Climate, Vol. 6, 2309-2325.
Guttman, N. B., Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R. 1993. Regional Precipitation Quantile Values for the Continental United States Computed from L-moments. Journal of Climate, Vol. 6, 2326-2340.
Hosking, J. R. M. 1990. L-moments: Analysis and Estimation of Distributions Using Linear Combinations of Order Statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B 52(1):105-124.
Hosking, J. R. M. 1994. The Four-parameter Kappa Distribution. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 38, 251-258.
Hosking, J. R. M. 2005. Fortran Routines for Use with The Method of L-moments, Version 3.04. Research Report RC 20525, IBM Research Division, T.C. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, N.Y.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R. 1993. Some Statistics Useful in Regional Frequency Analysis. Water Resources Research, 29, 271-281.
Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R. 1997. Regional Frequency analysis: An Approach Based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 224p.
Kysely, J., Huth, R. and Picek J. 2005. Regional Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in The Czech Republic. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, 01867.
Modarres, R. 2008. Regional Rainfall Distributions of Iran. Pajouhesh & Sazandegi, 75, 86-91.
Okman, C. 2005. Hidroloji (2. Baskı), Ankara Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Yayın No: 1544, Ders Kitabı: 497, Ankara.
Parida, B. P., Kachroo, R. K. and Shrestha, D. B. 1998. Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of Mahi-Sabarmati Basin (subzone 3-a) using Index-flood Procedure with L-moments. Water Resources Management, 12, 1-12.
Vogel, R. M., Thomas, W. O. and McMahon, T. A. 1993. Flood-flow Frequency Model Selection in Southwestern United States. Journal of Water Resources and Management, 119, 353-66.
Yurekli, K. 2005. Regional Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfalls Based on L-moment Approach. GOU. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 37-44.
Yurekli, K. and Modarres, R. 2007. Regionalization of Maximum Daily Rainfall Data over Tokat Province, Turkey. International Journal of Natural and Engineering Sciences, 1(2), 1-7.
Yurekli, K., Modarres, R. and Ozturk, F. 2009. Regional Daily Maximum Rainfall Estimation for Cekerek Watershed by L-moments. Meteorological Applications. 16: 435-444.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com