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Büyük Menderes havzasında sıcaklık değişimleri: 2000’li yılların başında sıcaklık artışında bir fasıla yaşandı mı?

Temperature changes in Büyük Menderes Basin (Turkey): has there been a warming hiatus at early 2000s ?

Journal Name:

  • Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2016
DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.13002/jafag972

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In the recent decade, a speculation has arisen on the evolution of global mean surface temperature, that there has been a slowdown in the rate of temperature increase or a cooling after the unusually strong El-Nino event in 1997/1998. This phenomenon is called as “slowdown”, “hiatus” or “pause”. Beside of global evidences, some studies in regional or sub-regional scales have also shown the existence of a hiatus, for example in China and Spain. The aim of this study is to examine the possible existence of so-called hiatus in a basin scale, in Büyük Menderes basin located in western Turkey. Temperature data covered the period from 1969 to 2013 for five climatic stations scattared homogeneously over the basin. Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope Estimator and an innovative trend analysis technique were used to assess the temperature changes. The results showed that Büyük Menderes basin has experienced a continued warming at early 2000s with a weaker rate and insignificant at %95 level in comparison to the strong warming at the last one or two decades of 20th century. Consequently, the warming slowdown detected in global scale is also evident in Büyük Menderes basin.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
1997/1998’deki kuvvetli El-Nino hadisesi sonrasındaki geçen sürede, küresel ortalama sıcaklık artışında bir yavaşlama veya soğuma olduğu yönünde bir spekülasyon ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu olay, “yavaşlama”, “fasıla” veya “durma” olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Global ölçekteki kanıtlar yanında, bazı bölgesel veya alt-bölgesel çalışmalar, örneğin İspanya’da ve Çin’de, bu fasılanın varlığını göstermiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin batısında yer alan Büyük Menderes havzası özelinde söz konusu fasılanın varlığını araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, havzada homojen olarak yayılmış beş klima istasyonuna ait 1969-2013 yılları arasındaki sıcaklık verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık değişimleri, Mann-Kendall testi, Sen’in Eğim Tahmincisi ve yeni bir trend analizi tekniği kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, Büyük Menderes havzasında, yirminci yüzyılın son on veya yirmi yılında yaşanan hızlı sıcaklık artışı ile karşılaştırıldığında, 2000’li yılların erken döneminde nispeten daha yavaş ve %95 düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak önemli olmayan bir sıcaklık artışının gerçekleştiğini göstermiştir. Sonuç olarak, global ölçekte saptanan sıcaklık artışındaki yavaşlama, Büyük Menderes havzasında da geçerlidir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • Turkish

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