You are here

Yapısal Şokların Emek Piyasası Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye İçin Beveridge Eğrisi Tahmini

The Effects of The Structural Shocks on The Labor Market: Beveridge Curve Estimation for Turkey

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.23929/javs.30

Keywords (Original Language):

Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, the factors hindering the matching fit between vacancy and unemployment rates in labour market and dynamics of jobless growth employment have been aimed to reveal in the scope of Beveridge Curve. For this purpose, existence of long term asymmetrical relationship between vacancy and unemployment rates has been tested for Turkish Economy at the period of 2005-2015. In order to test long term asymetric relationship, Enders and Granger (1998) non-linear threshold unit root test and asymmetric cointegration analysis developed by Enders and Siklos (2001) and based on TAR-MTAR models have been used. According to TAR and M-TAR models, the emprical findings show that there is not the presence of long term asymmetric relationship between two variables. This final empirical evidence has supported the common view which is toward not to decrease unemployment rates despite economic growth due to increasing female labour participation rates and increasing use of capital-intensive technology with technology transfer in recent years in Turkish economy.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, emek piyasasında açık iş ve işsizlik oranları arasındaki eşleşme uyumunu engelleyen faktörlerin ve istihdam yaratmayan ekonomik büyümenin dinamiklerinin Beveridge eğrisi kapsamında ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla açık iş oranları ve işsizlik oranları arasındaki olası uzun dönemli asimetrik ilişkinin varlığı 2005-2015 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi için sınanmıştır. Olası uzun dönem asimetrik ilişkinin sınanması amacıyla Enders ve Granger (1998) doğrusal olmayan eşik birim kök testi ve Enders ve Siklos (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ve TAR ve M-TAR modellerine dayanan asimetrik koentegrasyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, TAR ve M-TAR modeline göre söz konusu iki değişken arasında uzun dönemli asimetrik bir ilişkinin bulunmadığı yönündedir. Bu nihai ampirik bulgu, Türkiye ekonomisinde son yıllarda artan kadın işgücüne katılım oranları ve teknoloji transferiyle artan sermaye-yoğun teknoloji kullanımı nedeniyle, ekonomik büyümeye rağmen işsizlik oranlarının azalmadığı yönündeki hakim görüşü destekler niteliktedir.

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

References: 

Ağayev, S. & Bora, A. (2012). “Türkiye İçin Beveridge Eğrisi ve Emek Piyasası Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49 (565): 23-36.
Aydın, N. (2012). “İşsizlik eğrisi ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasına İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, DPUJSS 32(2): 118-133.
Archambault, R. & Fortin, M. (2001). “The Beveridge Curve and Unemployment Fluctuations in Canada”, The Canadian Journal of Economics, 34: 58-81.
Bayraktar, S.B. & Günalp, B. (2012), “The Beveridge Curve and Labour Market Dynamics in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 44: 3195–3202.
Bleakley, H. & Jefrey C.F. (1997). “Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching and Labor Market Dynamics”, New England Economic Review, Sep./Oct.: 3–19.
Blanchard, O. J. & Diamond, P. (1989). “The Beveridge Curve”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1–76.
Bouvet, F. (2009). “The Beveridge Curve in Europe: New Evidence Using National and Regional Data” 11th EUSA Biennial International Conference Los Angeles, California, April: 23-25.
Borsch-Supan, A. H. (1991). “Panel Data Analysis of the Beveridge Curve: Is There a Macroeconomic Relation Between the Rate of Unemployment and the Vacancy Rate?”, Economica, 58: 279–97.
Budd, A.; Levin, P. & Smith, P. (1988). “ Unemployment, Vacancies and the Long-Term Unemployed”, The Economic Journal, 98(393): 1071-1091.
Destafanis, S. & Raquel, F. (2006).“Labour- Market Reforms and the Beveridge Curve: Some Macro Evidence for Italy”, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance, 168.
Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–31.
Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49: 1057.
Dow, J. & L. Dicks‐Mireaux. (1958). “The Excess Demand for Labour: A Study of Conditions in Great Britain, 1946–56,” Oxford Economic Papers, 10: 1–33.
Tanrıöver, B. & Biçer, B. (2015). “Yapısal Şokların Emek Piyasası Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye İçin Beveridge Eğrisi
Tahmini”, International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 1 (1) : 12-25. (ISSN:2149-8598).
25
International Journal of Academic Value Studies 2015, 1 (1) :1-11
Enders, W & Granger, C. W. J. (1998). “Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment With an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rate”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16: 304-311.
Enders W & Siklos, P.L. (2001). “Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19: 166-176.
Enders, W. (2004). “Applied Econometric Time Series”. 2nd ed, USA: John Willey&Sons.
Engle, R. F & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55: 251-276.
Hansen, B. (1970), “Excess Demand, Unemployment, Vacancies and Wages,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84: 1–23.
Jackman, R.; Layard, R. & Pissarides, C. A. (1989). “On Vacancies”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 51: 377–94.
Kanık, B.; Sünel, E. & Taşkın, T. (2012). “ Beveridge Egrisi ve Eslesme Fonksiyonu: Türkiye Örnegi”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Ekonomi Notları, 24.
Keskin, A. & Şen, H. (2010). “Beveridge Eğrisi, Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması”, TİSK Akademi, 5 (10): 198–208.
Kosfeld, R.; Dreger, R. & Eckey, H-F. (2006). “On the Stability of the German BeveridgeCurve: A Spatial Econometric Perspective”, The Institute for the Study of Labor Discussion Paper, 2099.
Nickell, S.; Nunziata, L.; Ochel, W. & Quintini,G. (2001). “The Beveridge Curve, Unemployment and Wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s”, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion: Paper No.0502.
Okun, A. M. (2012). "Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, in American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section; reprinted with slight changes in Arthur M. Okun, The Political Economy of Prosperity (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution).
Petrongolo, B. & C. A. Pissarides (2001). “Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function,” Journal of Economic Literature, 39: 390-431.
Stegman, A. & Stegman, T. (2004). “Labour market reform and the macroeconomic efficiency of the labour market in Australia”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 28: 743–66.
Teo, E.; Thangavelu, S.M. & Quah, E. (2005), “Singapore’s Beveridge Curve: A Comparative Study of the Unemployment and Vacancy Relationship for Selected East Asian Countries”, Department of Economics SCAPE Working Paper Series, No. 2005/08.
Withers, G & Pope, D. (1985). “Immigration and Unemployment”, Economic Record, 61: 554-563.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com