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BITCOIN Fiyatları Google Trend Verileri ile Tahmin Edilebilir Mi? Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırılması Üzerine Bir Örnek

CAN BITCOINS’ PRICES BE PREDICTED BY GOOGLE TRENDS DATA? AN EXAMPLE OF TURKEY WITH COMPARISION OF USA

Journal Name:

  • International Journal of Academic Value Studies

Publication Year:

  • 2017
DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.23929/javs.193

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Bitcoin is a very popular crypto currency primarily due to its ease of use, ability to remove intermediaries and also for many other reasons. Merchants, investors and academics are interested in bitcoin in various respects. But there aren’t so many researches about the investigation of bitcoin prices in the literature. In this study, we aimed at finding if “bitcoin” searches on Google in Turkey and USA can help to predict current bitcoin price or not. Besides that, we desired to examine the effects of prior bitcoin prices on current bitcoin prices. We run weekly historical data of bitcoin prices and also weekly data of “bitcoin” queries on Google which are searched for in Turkey and in USA separately between 2011-2016 years. We benefited from eviews program for our analysis. ARIMA method is used for model selection and least squares methods are used for evaluating the overall significance or separated significance of every variable. Our findings imply that when USA Google “bitcoin” searches increase, bitcoin prices drops. However, when Turkey Google “bitcoin” searches drop or increase bitcoin prices don’t affected by these movements.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bitcoin; kullanım kolaylığı, değişimler için aracıları ortadan kaldırması ve daha pek çok sebepten ötürü bir hayli popüler bir para birimidir. Bitcoin konusu çoğu açıdan tüccarlar, yatırımcılar ve akademisyenlerin ilgisini çekse de literatürde bitcoin fiyatlarına dair çalışmalar oldukça kısıtlıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Google bitcoin aramalarına bakılarak bitcoin fiyatlarının tahmin edilebilirliğinin incelenmesidir. Ayrıca geçmiş bitcoin fiyatlarının günümüz bitcoin fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi de araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla 2011-2016 yılları arasında haftalık bitcoin fiyatları ve Türkiye ve Amerika’daki Google “bitcoin” aramalarına ait veriler değerlendirilmiştir. Eviews programında uygulanan ARIMA yönteminden model seçiminde ve en küçük kareler metodundan ise tüm değişkenlerin anlamlılığını yordamak amacıyla faydalanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre Türkiye’de geçmişteki bitcoin fiyatları değerlendirilerek bugünün bitcoin fiyatları tahmin edilememektedir. Ayrıca; Amerika’daki bitcoin aramaları arttığı zaman bitcoin fiyatları düşüş gösterirken, Türkiye’deki bitcoin aramalarının artış veya azalış göstermesi ile bitcoin fiyatları herhangi bir değişikliğe uğramamaktadır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastirmax-bitcoin-fiyatlari-google-trend-verileri-ile-tahmin-edilebilir-mi-turkiye-amerika-birlesik-devletlerinin-karsilastirilmasi-uzerine-bir-ornek.pdf
  • 10
167
177
  • Turkish

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

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