You are here


Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Traditional finance theories are not sufficient to explain investor’s sentiment and psychology. This situation leads to emergence of Behavioural Finance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the macroeconomic factors affecting Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Within this scope, monthly data for the period between 2007:01 and 2017:03 is analysed by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the analysis, CBRT Composite Leading Indicators Index, Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (CURMI), Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR) and BIST100 Return Index affect RSCI.

JEL Codes:



Arısoy, İ. (2012). Türkiye Ekonomisinde İktisadi Güven Endeksleri ve Seçilmiş Makro Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 162, 304-315.
Ayuningtyas, R., & Koesrindartoto, D. P. (2014). The Relationship between Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Indexes Return: Empirical Evidence in Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Conference on Trends in Economics, Humanities and Management. 21-25.
Darling, P. G. (1955). A Surrogative Measure of Business Confidence and Its Relation to Stock Prices. The Journal of Finance, 10(4), 442-458.
Fama, E. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Gagea, M. (2012). The Contribution of Business Confıdence Indicators in Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development. Annals of the University of Oradea, Economic Science Series, 21(1), 986-992.
Gujarati, N. D. (1999). Temel Ekonometri (1. Baskı), (Çev: Şenesen, Ü., & Şenesen, G.G.). Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Kale, S., & Akkaya, M. (2016). The Relation between Confidence Climate and Stock Returns: The Case of Turkey. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 150-162.
Katona, G. (1968). Consumer Behavior: Theory and Findings on Expectations and Aspirations. The American Economic Review, 58(2), 19-30.
Kershoff, G. (2000). Measuring Business and Consumer Confidence in South Africa. Bureau for Economic Research, 1-11.
Kıyılar, M., & Akkaya, M. (2016). Davranışsal Finans, Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
Korkmaz, T., & Çevik, E. İ. (2009). Reel Kesim Güven Endeksi ile IMKB 100 Endeksi Arasındaki Dinamik Nedensellik İlişkisi. Istanbul University Journal of the School of Business Administration, 38(1), 24-37.
Köse, A., & Akkaya, M. (2016). The Effects of Sentiment and Confidence Indices on Financial Markets: An Application on BIST 100. Bankacılar Dergisi, 99, 3-15.
Koy, A., & Akkaya, M. (2017). The Role of Consumer Confidence as a Leading Indicator on Stock Returns: A Markov Switching Approach. Annals of the University Dunarea de Jos of Galati: Fascicle: I, Economics & Applied Informatics, 23(1), 36-47.
Nguyen, N. K. et. al. (2015). The Impact of Business and Consumer Confidence on Stock Market Risk Premiums: Evidence from Vietnam, Asian Journal of Management Sciences, 3(7), 10-13.
Otoo, M. W. (1999). Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market. Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board.
Özsağır, A. (2007). Trust Factor in Economy. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(20), 46-62.
Samuelson, P. A. (1965). Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly. Industrial Management Review, 6(2), 41-49.
Santero, T., & Westerlund, N. (1996). Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 170, 1-54.
Sheffrin, S. M. (1996). Rational Expectations. Cambridge University Press.
An Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Real Sector Confidence Index: the Case of Turkey
Sum, V. (2014). Effects of Business and Consumer Confidence on Stock Market Returns: Cross-Sectional Evidence. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 9(1), 21-25.
Sum, V., & Chorlian, J. (2013). Stock Market Risk Premiums, Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence: Dynamic Effects and Variance Decomposition. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(5), 45-49.
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1945). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press.

Thank you for copying data from