You are here

A Quantitative Approach for Measuring Technological Forecasting Capability

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Abstract (2. Language): 
Successful technological forecasting is important to invest scarce funds to emerging technologies. A generic model to measure the success of forecasting overall technological changes is introduced in this paper, called degree of Technological Forecasting Capability. It measures the success rate of forecasts in manufacturing processes based on four important aspects of a manufacturing system; Flow Time, Quantity/Day, Scrap Ratio, and New Investment Revenue. The proposed approach has been verified with a case study in manufacturing industry, where each of 4 facets have been calculated based on the data provided and aggregated into the degree of forecasting capability.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 

REFERENCES

References: 

[1] J. P. Martino, “Technological Forecasting: An Overview”, Management Science, 26(1), 28-33, 1980.
[2] H. Grupp, H. A. Linstone, “National technology foresight activities around the globe: resurrection and new paradigms”,
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 60 (1), 85-94, 1999.
[3] F. Brandes, “The UK Technology Foresight Programme: An Assessment of Expert Estimates”, Technological Forecasting
& Social Change, 76 (7), 869-879, 2009.
[4] V. R. Fey, E. I. Rivin, “Guided technology evolution (Triz technology Forecasting)”, The Triz Journal, No:1 (1999) , 2011.
[Online] Available: http://www.triz-journal.com/archives/1999/01/c/ (22.12.2011)
[5] H. A. Linstone, “Three eras of technology foresight”, Technovation, 31 (2-3), 69-76, 2011.
[6] I. S. Barutcugil, “Teknolojik Yenilik ve Araştırma Geliştirme Yönetimi”, Bursa University Press, Bursa, TR, pp. 65-72, 1981.
[7] H. Eto, “The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy- A Japanese
view”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 70(3), 231-249, 2003.
[8] J. P. Martino, “Technological Forecasting: An introduction”, The Futurist, 27(4), 13-16, 1993a.
[9] J. R. Meredith, “Technological Forecasting”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Indianapolis, USA, App., B, 1-21, 1995.
[10] E. Oztemel, M. B. Ayhan, “Measuring Technological Forecasting”, Industrial Informatics, 7th IEEE International
Conference on 23-26 June 2009, Cardiff, Wales, pp,49-53. DOI: 10.1109/INDIN.2009.5195777, 2009.
[11] P. Young, “Technological Growth curves- a comparison of forecasting models”, Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, 44(4), 375-389, 1993.
[12] Z. Steven, P. Ziamou, “The essentials of scenario writing”, Business Horizons, Vol.44, 25-31, 2011.
[13] H. A. Linstone, M. Turoff, “Delphi: A brief look backward and forward”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change,
78(9), 1712-1719, 2011.
[14] V. Coates, M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. A. Linstone, C. Pistorius, A. L. Porter, “On the Future of Technological
Forecasting”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 67(1), 1-17, 2001.
[15] K. Barry, E. Domb, M. S. Slocum, “TRIZ- What is TRIZ?”, 2011.
[Online] Available: http://www.triz-journal.com/archives/what_is_triz/ (22.12.2011)
[16] J. P. Martino, “Technological Forecasting for Decision Making”, 3rd Edition, McGraw Hill, New York, NY, 1993b.
[17] S. Mishra, S. G. Deshmukh, P. Vrat, “Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology”, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 69(1), 1-27, 2002.
[18] A. C. Cheng, C. J. Chen, C. Y. Chen, “A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for
predicting the new materials development”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 75(1), 131-141, 2008.
[19] V. A. Banuls, J. L. Salmeron, “Foresighting key areas in the Information Technology industry”, Technovation, 28 (3), 103-
111, 2008.
[20] T.R. Anderson, T.U. Daim, J. Kim, “Technology Forecasting for wireless communication”, Technovation, 28 (9), 602-614,
2008.
[21] A. Dalla Valle, C. Furlan, “Forecasting accuracy of wind power technology diffusion models across countries”,
International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 592-601, 2011.
[22] J.S. Armstrong, F. Collopy, “Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: empirical comparisons.”
International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-80, 1992.
[23] S. Makridakis, A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, “The accuracy of extrapolation (time
series) methods: results of a forecasting competition”, International Journal of Forecasting, 1, 111-153, 1982.
[24] J. P. Martino, “A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting”, Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, 70(8), 719-733, 2003.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com