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A Quantitative Approach for Measuring Technological Forecasting Capability

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Successful technological forecasting is important to invest scarce funds to emerging technologies. A generic model to measure the success of forecasting overall technological changes is introduced in this paper, called degree of Technological Forecasting Capability. It measures the success rate of forecasts in manufacturing processes based on four important aspects of a manufacturing system; Flow Time, Quantity/Day, Scrap Ratio, and New Investment Revenue. The proposed approach has been verified with a case study in manufacturing industry, where each of 4 facets have been calculated based on the data provided and aggregated into the degree of forecasting capability.



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