You are here

AVRUPA PARASAL BİRLİĞİNDE KAMU BORÇ STOKU VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The traditional view on price determination focuses on the role of monetary policy and the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. Most analyses assume that the monetary authority is expected to set its control variable without facing any constraint, so that prices are determined by money supply and demand in a traditional way. Hovewer, a new approach has emerged in the 1990s, which allows fiscal policy to set primary surpluses to follow an arbitrary process, not necessarily compatible with solvency. “This theory could be of particular interest for monetary unions since it might contribute to explain the different evolution of the price level across the member countries. The aim of this paper is to test empirically by using panel data analysis whether the impact of the fiscal policy affects price level determination in both Old and New members and Candidate countries to the European Monetary Union. The panel data analysis basically evidences Ricardian or monetary dominant regime in all the groups.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Fiyat seviyesinin belirlenmesinin geleneksel (monetarist) görüşü, parasal politikanın rolüne odaklanırken mali politikanın rolünü ihmal etmektedir. Geleneksel teoride, fiyat seviyesi para arzı ve talebiyle belirlenirken, 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ortaya çıkan fiyat düzeyinin mali kuramı (FTPL) mali otoritenin, zamanlararası kamu bütçe kısıtının sağlanmasından bağımsız olarak mali değişkenlerini oluşturmasına izin verip mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini belirleyebildiğini vurgulamaktadır. Yeni teori, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine üye ülkelerde fiyat seviyesinin farklılaşmasını açıklayabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine Eski ve Yeni Üye ülkeler ile Aday ülkelerde mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini etkileyip etkilemediğinin panel veri yöntemiyle analiz edilmesidir. Panel veri analizi, tüm ülke gruplarında Ricardocu veya parasal üstünlük rejiminin geçerli olduğunu veya bir diğer ifadeyle FTPL’nin geçerli olmadığını kanıtlamaktadır.

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

References: 

Afonso, A. (2002) “Disturbing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Can it Fit the EU-15”,
http://econpapers.repec.org/cpd/2002/5-Afonso.pdf May 14, 2007.
Afonso, A. (2005) “Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union”, Working Paper, No:558, European
Central Bank, 1-44.
Alstadheim, R. (2005) “Is the Price Level in Norway Determined by Fiscal Policy?”, Norges Bank, Working
Paper, 5, 1-18.
Baltagi, B. (2004) Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Bassetto, M. (2001) “Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”, http://www.nber.org/~
bassetto/research/palgrave/ftheorypost.pdf March, 10 2007.
Beck, N. & Katz, J. N. (1995) “What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data” The
American Political Science Review, 89 (3):634-647.
Bergin, P. (2000) “Fiscal Solvency and Price Level Determination in a Monetary Union”, Journal of
Monetary Economics, 45, 37-53.
Bloise, G. & P. Reichlin (2005) “Long-Term Public Debt and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”,
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5479.asp July 15, 2007.
Bohn, H. (1998) “The Behaviour of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113,
949-963.
Bravo, A. & Silvestre, A. (2002) “Intertemporal Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: Some Tests for European
Countries”, European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 18, 517-528.
Buiter, W. H. (1998) “The Young Person’s Guide to Neutrality, Price Level Interminancy, Interest Rate Pegs
and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level”, Discussion Paper 1799, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Buiter, W. H. (2001) “The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again”, Working Paper 141, Bank
of England.
Canzoneri, M. B., Cumby, R. E. & Diba, B. T. (2001) “Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal
Solvency?”, American Economic Review, 91, 1221-1238.
Carlstrom, M. B. & Fuerst, T. S. (2000) “The Fiscal Theory of The Price Level”, Federal Reserve Bank of
Clevand Economic Review, 36, No:1, 22-32.
Claeys, P. (2007) “Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies:A Panel Test”, Institut de Recerca en Economia
Aplicado, 1-24.
Cochrane, J. H. (1998) “A Frictionless view of U.S. Inflation”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 13, 323-384.
Cochrane, J. H. (2001) “Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”,
Econometrica, 69, 69-116.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005) “Money as Stock”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 501-528.
Creel, J. & Bihan, H. L. (2001) “Using Structural Balance Data-to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level:
An Application to France and the USA” http://repec.org/res2002/Creel.pdf June 14, 2007.
Creel, J. & Kamber, G. (2004) “Debt, Deficits and Inflation on the Road to the EU: The Case of Turkey”,
Special Case, 157-174.
Daniel, B. C. (2001) “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in an Open Economy”, Journal of Monetary
Economics, No:48, 293-308.
De Resende, C. (2007) “Cross Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank
Independence”, Bank of Canada, Working Paper, 36, 1-33.
Dupor, B. (2000) “Exchange Rates and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”, Journal of Monetary
Economics, No:45, 613-630.
Ehrhart, C. & Llorca, M. (2007) “A Global Perspective of Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from a panel of 20
OECD Countries”, http://www.socuoc.gr/makro/11conf/docc/Fiscal-sustainability-OECD-countries. pdf
December 11, 2007.
Favero, C. & Monacelli, T. (2003) “Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from U.S.”,
CEPR, NBER and Universita Bocconi, 1-27.
Holmes, M., Otero, J. & Panagiotidis, T. (2007) “Are EU Budget Deficits
Sustainable?”,http://www.commerce.otago-ac.nz/econ/seminars/Abstracts/Mark %20Holmes %20September
2007-%20.paper.pdf December 11, 2007.
Janssen, N.; Nolan, C. & Ryland, T. (1999) “Money, Debt and Prices in the UK, 1705-1996”,
http://www.reading.oc.uk/business/ images/content/emdp4108 .pdf June 18, 2007.
Leeper, E. M. (1991) “Equilibria under “Active” and “Passive” Monetary and Fiscal Policies”, Journal of
Monetary Economics, 27, 129-147.
McCallum, B. T. (2001) “Indeterminancy, Bubbles and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination”,
Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 19-30.
Prohl, S. & Schneider, F. (2006) “Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel Cointegration
Analysis for the European Union Member Countries” http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2006/wp0610.pdf
September 1, 2007.
Rubio, O., Diaz-Roldan, C. & Esteve, V. (2007) “Deficit Sustainability and Inflation in EMU: An Analysis
from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”, http://www.ief.es/publicaciones/PapelesDeTrabajo/pt2007_02.pdf
September 3, 2007.
Semmler, W. & Zhang, W. (2004) “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area”, Empirica, 31,
205-227.
Sims, C. A. (1994) “A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of
Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Economic Theory, 4, 381-399.
Sims, C. A. (1997) “Fiscal Foundations of Price Stability in Open Economies”,
http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/hongkong/hkbrown.pdf April 4, 2007.
Thams, A. (2007) “The Relevance of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Revisited”, Munich Personel
Repec Archive, 1-20.
Tkocevs, A. (2007) “The Relevance of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Revisited”, Munich Personel
Repec Archive, 1-20.
Vieria, C. (2000) “Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary: Evidence for the EU?, Economic Research Paper,
Lougborough University, No:00/7, 1-17.
Woodford, M. (1994) “Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinancy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,
Economic Theory, 4, 345-380.
Woodford, M. (1995) “Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate, CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 1-46.
Woodford, M. (1998) “Public Debt and the Price Level”, presented at the Bank of England Conference on
Government Debt and Monetary Policy, June, 18-19.
Woodford, M. (2001) “Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33,
669-728.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com