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PARASAL BÜYÜME VE TÜKETİCİ ENFLASYONU DEĞİŞİM ORANI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERINE BİR DENEME: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2009

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper the causality relationships between the inflationary process, experienced by the Turkish economy, and some main money supply measures have been tried to be investigated, and the direction of these relationships has also been aimed to be determined through the vector autoregression impulse-response function estimates. Our findings in general indicate that the course of inflationary framework seems to be exogenous as to the course of the monetary aggregates, and that the course of the monetary aggregates seems to be endogenous as to the course of the inflation. Moreover, impulse-response function estimates have been found supportive to these results. All in all, it is concluded that the monetary policy tends to be adaptive to the inflationary framework under the investigation period considered.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin yaşamış olduğu enflasyonist süreç ile başlıca bazı para arzı göstergeleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmeye çalışılmış, ayrıca vektör otoregresif etki-tepki işlevi tahminleri ile bu ilişkilerin doğrultusunun belirlenilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bulgularımız genel olarak enflasyonist ortamdaki değişimlerin parasal büyüklüklerdeki değişime göre dışsal bir yapıda, buna karşılık parasal büyüklüklerdeki değişimin enflasyonist değişimlere göre içsel bir yapıda olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca etki-tepki işlevi tahmin bulguları bu sonuçları destekleyici nitelikte bulunmuştur. Sonuç olarak, para politikasının inceleme döneminde enflasyonist yapıya göre uyumlaştırıcı bir yapıda gerçekleştirildiği şeklinde bir yargıya ulaşılmıştır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 9
56-74
  • Turkish

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

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