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FINANSAL KÜRESELLESME –PARA K RIZI NEDENSEL L IGI VE PARA KRIZLERININ TAHMIN EDILEBILIRLIGI: TÜRKIYE, 1990–2002

Financial Globalization-Cur rency Cr isisCausality And Predictability Of Cur rency Cr ises: Turkey, 1990–2002

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper tests the Granger Causality between financ ial globalisation and currency crises and calculates predicted probabilities of currency crises. The probabilities of currency crises were calculated by five models including 31 explanatory variables by us ing monthly time series data. The findings show that financ ial globalisation Granger-Causes currency crises over the period of 1990–2002 in the Turkish economy at the 10 percenc significant level.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalisma, finansal küresellesme ile para krizleri arasinda iktisadi bir nedensellik iliskis i olup olmadigini test etmek ve para krizlerinin tahmin olasiliklarini hesaplamak üzere yapilmistir. Çalisma 1990–2002 dönemi Türkiye ekonomis i aylik zaman serisi verilerini kapsamaktadir. Para krizi çikma olasiliklari bes model kapsaminda ve toplam 31 açiklayici degisken kullanilarak hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, Türkiye örneginde ve 1990–2002 dönemi için finansal küresellesme olgusunun para krizlerinin % 10 önem seviyes inde Granger nedeni oldugunu göstermektedir.
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