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Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru Yaklaşımı ile Reel Döviz Kurlarının Yanlış Dengelenmesinin Ölçülmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Measuring the Real Exchange Rate Misalignment with Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach: The Case of Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Kastamonu Üniversitesi Kastamonu Eğitim Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2017

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study the real exchange rate misalignment in Tur-key in 1991Q1-2014Q3 period was determined by “Behav-ioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model”. The results ob-tained from the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model show that the real exchange rate has been misa-ligned in general throughout the period covered in Turkey and that the size of the current misalignment has reached to 140% in the 1994 crisis and to 195% in the 2001 crisis. And the size of total misalignment has reached to 50% in 1994 crisis and 125% in the 2001 crisis. Another important finding from the study is that the real exchange rate in Turkey is significantly misaligned from both its current and the long-run equilibrium level in the period when the fixed exchange rate regime is applied, and after reaching the flexible exchange rate regime, it converged to its equilib-rium level.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Çalışmada, 1991Q1-2014Q3 döneminde Türkiye için reel döviz kurlarının yanlış dengelenmesi, “Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru Modeli” ile belirlenmiştir. Davranışsal denge döviz kuru modelinden elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’de ele alınan dönem boyunca genel olarak reel döviz kurları-nın yanlış dengelendiğini, cari yanlış dengelenmenin boyu-tunun 1994 krizinde %140’a 2001 krizinde %195’e, toplam yanlış dengelenmenin ise 1994 krizinde %50’ye 2001 kri-zinde %125’e ulaştığını, göstermektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bir diğer önemli bulgu ise Türkiye’de sabit kur reji-minin uygulandığı dönemlerde, reel döviz kurlarının hem cari denge seviyesinden hem de uzun dönem denge sevi-yesinden ciddi ölçüde sapma gösterdiğini, esnek kur reji-mine geçilmesinin ardından ise denge seviyesine yakınsa-dığını ortaya koymaktadır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 2
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  • Turkish

REFERENCES

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