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ÖDEMELER DENGESİ KISITLI BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1950-2014)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINED GROWTH IN TURKEY (1950-2014)

Journal Name:

  • Kırklareli University Journal Of The Faculty Of Economics and Administrative Sciences

Publication Year:

  • 2017

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper investigates whether Thirlwall’s law, or balance of payments-constrained growth model (BPC) holds for Turkey, using annual data spanning from 1950 to 2014. Unlike previous studies for the country, we tested both original Thirlwall’s law and its modified version with capital flows and interest payments, for a much longer period. The empirical findings indicate that Thirlwall’s law somewhat holds for Turkey and further restrictions imposed by modified version of the Thirlwall’s law do not constitute an important hindrance to economic growth performance directly. Turkey should improve its production base and manage to produce higher quality products for both exports and domestic consumption. Such a policy will solve balance of payments constrained growth problem, by both increasing exports and decreasing income elasticity of demand for imports.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu makalede 1950-2014 dönemine ait yıllık veriler yardımıyla Thirlwall kanununun (ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme) Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Türkiye için yapılan daha önceki çalışmaların aksine, bu çalışmada hem orjinal Thirlwall kanunu ve hem de bu kanunun sermaye hareketleri ve faiz ödemeleriyle modifiye edilmiş versiyonu çok daha uzun bir periyot için test edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular Thirlwall kanununun Türkiye için kısmen geçerli olduğunu ve Thirlwall kanununun modifiye versiyonunun ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde direkt olarak önemli bir engel oluşturmadığını göstermektedir. Türkiye üretim altyapısını geliştirmeli ve hem ihracat hem de iç tüketim için yüksek kalite üretim yapmalıdır. Bu şekilde bir politika hem ihracatı arttırarak hem de ithalat talebinin gelir esnekliğini düşürerek ödemeler dengesi kısıtlı büyüme problemini çözecektir.
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  • Turkish

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REFERENCES

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