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HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİLERİ VE DEĞİŞKENLİK:İMKB ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

STOCK RETURN SANDVOLATILITY: SOME EVIDENCE FROM İSTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Thispaperinvestigatesthefirm-levelandportfolio-levelrelationshipsbetweenstockmarketreturnsandtheir forecastvolatilitiesi nIstanbulStockExchange(ISE).Expectedvolatilityisderivedfromsymmetricand asymmetricconditionalvolatilitymodels:ARCH(p),GARCH(1,1),EGARCH(1,1)andGJR-GARCH(1,1).Theout-of-sampleforecastsareuseda saproxyformonthlyexpectedvolatilitiesovertheperiodo fJanuary1991to December2006.Expectedandunexpectedvolatilitiesarefoundtohaveapositiveornegativeeffecti nafewcases withlowR 2 values.Theresultso fthisstudydonotprovideanysupportforarelationshipbetweenstockreturnsand volatilityi nISE.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Buçalışmada,hissesenedigetirileriylebugetirilerintahmin îdeğişkenlikleriarasındakiilişki,İMK BHisseSenetleri Piyasasıiçi nfirmaveportföydüzeyindearaştırılmıştır.Beklenendeğişkenlikdeğerleri,simetrikveasimetrik koşulludeğişkenlikmodelleriolanARCH(p),GARCH(1,1),EGARCH(1,1)veGJR-GARCH(1,1)ile hesaplanmıştır.Ocak1991-Aralık2006dönemiiçi nyapılançalışmada,aylıkbeklenendeğişkenlikdeğerleri örneklem-dışıtahmindeğerlerininbirgöstergesiolarakkullanılmıştır.Beklenenvebeklenmeyendeğişkenliklerile getirilerarasındapozitifveyanegatifilişkini nolduğudurumsayısıoldukçaazdırveR 2 değerleridüşük düzeylerdedir.Buçalışmanınsonuçlarınagöre,İMKB'd egetiriveriskarasındaanlamlıdüzeydebirilişki bulunmamaktadır
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