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TÜRKİYE’DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDA NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Consumption of electricity has been known in many countries to be correlated with economic activities. The reasons for increase of electricity demand are higher living standards and industrialization. Like in other developing countries, in Turkey, the demand for energy and electricity is growing rapidly due to social and economic developments and increase of the population of the country. In this paper, the Granger causality between electricity consumption (EC) and Gross National Product (GNP) is examined for Turkey using annual data covering the period 1970-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis have same order of integration (I(1)), Granger causality test is employed. In this study it was found that bidirectional causal relationship between electricity consumption and GNP in the short-run, and unidirectional causality running from GNP to electricity consumption exists in the long-run.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Elektrik tüketiminin pek çok ülkede ekonomik aktivitelerle ilişkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Elektiriğe olan talebin sebebi yüksek yaşam standartları ve endüstrileşmedir. Diğer gelişmiş ülkelerde olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de enerjiye ve elektriğe olan yüksek talebin nedeni, ülke nüfusundaki artış ve, sosyal ve ekonomik gelişmelerin hızla artmasındandır. Bu makalede, Türkiye’nin 1970-2004 dönemindeki yıllık verilerle elektrik tüketimi ve GSMH arasındaki nedensellik araştırıldı. Yapılan analiz sonunda elektrik tüketimi ve GSMH değişkenleri aynı derecede (I(1)) bütünleşik olduklarından Granger nedensellik testi uygulandı. Çalışmada, kısa dönemde elektrik tüketimi ve GSMH arasında iki yönlü nedensellik, uzun dönemde ise GSMH’dan elektrik tüketimine tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulundu.

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