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DÜNYA PETROL FİYATLARINDAKİ DEĞİŞİMİN BÜYÜME VE ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD OIL PRICE CHANGES ON GROWTH AND INFLATION: EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

Journal Name:

  • Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Oil price shocks affect the macroeconomy through the supply side (higher production costs) and the demand side (income effects, uncertainties). Negative supply shocks could lower economic growth and increase inflation. This study investigates the effects of oil price changes on Turkey’s macroeconomic variables such as growth and inflation. To this end, vector autoregressive model (VAR) is employed using monthly data for the period of 1987:1- 2010:9. According to the results of Granger causality analysis that is based on the VAR model; it is observed that there is one way causality running from oil prices to economic growth and no causality between oil prices and inflation. Impulse responses fonctions showed that a positive oil price shock increase both the growth of GDP and inflation.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Petrol fiyatları şokları makro ekonomiyi arz yönü (yüksek üretim maliyetleri) ve talep yönü (gelir etkisi, belirsizlik) ile etkiler. Negatif şoklar büyümeyi azaltıcı, enflasyonu artırıcı yönde etkileyebilir. Bu çalışmada petrol fiyatı değişikliklerinin Türkiye’nin enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme gibi iki önemli makro ekonomik değişkeni üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla, 1987:1-2010:9 arası dönem için aylık veriler kullanılarak VAR Modeli uygulaması yapılmıştır. VAR Modeli’nden elde edilen Granger nedensellik analizi sonucuna göre; petrol fiyatlarından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunurken, petrol fiyatları ile enflasyon arasında bir nedensellik çıkmamıştır. Yine VAR modelinden elde edilen etki tepki fonksiyonlarına göre petrol fiyatında meydana gelecek pozitif bir şokun hem büyümeyi hem enflasyonu pozitif etkilediği sonucuna varılmıştır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 14
15-34
  • Turkish

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