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TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KRİZ ÖNCÜ GÖSTERGELERİ VE İKİZ AÇIK

LEADING INDICATORS OF CRISIS IN TURKISH ECONOMY AND TWIN DEFICIT

Journal Name:

  • Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The troubles which stem from the frequent occurrence of economic and financial crises could be eliminated partly through predictability of crises. Benefitting of taking preventive measures early for existing of economic and financial crises and their decreasing effects, the way of early leading indicators of crisis is become more important. Lately, the theory of decoupling, affected by dullness economy in one of the countries or creating less effect, is one of the discussion topic in global, is ended because the whole world has experienced crises effects. For this reason, developing economic politics benefiting from leading indicators affect the other countries which take preventive measures. With global action, developing countries which depend on the other countries and have unlimited external capital, are affected from economic and financial crises in the world. In this study, leading indicators of money crises 1990’s in Turkey is tried to be determined and twin deficits which is showed casual relations between budget deficits and current deficit in crises examined. Discussion of the research in Turkey, which is conducted about Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), production index, stocks prices, balance of payments, balance of current and budget data are different than the other researches which are done before by Composite Leading Indicators and production index data. Conclusion of research showed that composite Leading indicators, production index, stock prices, balance of payments, balance of current and budget indicators are significant for explain currency crises in Turkey. At the same time the study shows the relationship between budget deficits and current deficits before and after crises in Turkey as a twin deficit.
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