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Bulanık Mantık ve Lojistik Regresyon Yöntemleri ile Ulaşım Ağlarında Geçki Seçim Davranışının Modellenmesi

Modelling Route Choice Decision in Transportation Networks by Fuzzy Logic and Logistic Regression Approaches

Journal Name:

  • İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası Teknik Dergi

Publication Year:

  • 2008

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Route choice is a complex problem in which the individual benefit is maximized by using many parameters. The effectiveness of a route choice model depends on well-definition of the users’ behaviors. The purpose of this study is to model the route choice problem of an important network in Denizli with fuzzy logic using the real data gathered by a survey. Four important parameters; namely travel time, traffic safety, congestion and environmental effects are used in the fuzzy model. The fuzzy logic concepts are especially used to take into account the characteristics of route choice behavior such as imprecision, vagueness and uncertainty. The fuzzy logic model is compared with Logistic Regression Models and the best results are obtained with the Fuzzy Logic Model.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Geçki seçim problemi, bir çok parametrenin değerlendirilerek, bireysel faydanın en büyüklemesine yönelik karmaşık bir sorun olup, oluşturulacak modelin doğruluğu, bireysel geçki seçim davranışının gerçekçi olarak temsiline bağlıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Denizli ilinde belirlenmiş olan önemli bir yol ağındaki geçki seçim problemini, yapılan anket çalışması sonucu elde edilen gerçek veriler kullanılarak bulanık olarak modellemektir. Bulanık Mantık modelinde, geçki seçim davranışı üzerinde etkili olan en önemli dört parametre; yolculuk süresi, trafik güvenliği, tıkanma olasılığı ve çevresel etki değerlendirmeleri dikkate alınmıştır. Geçki seçim davranışındaki belirsizlikleri modelleyebilmek amacıyla Bulanık Mantık kabullerinden yararlanılmıştır. Geliştirilen Bulanık Mantık Geçki Seçim modeli, lojistik regresyon modelleri ile karşılaştırılmış ve gerçek değerlere en yakın sonuçlar BM modeli ile elde edilmiştir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
4363-4379
  • Turkish

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