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Türkiye’nin Eksik Dış Ticareti, Ticari Potansiyeli ve Yeni Fırsatlar

Turkey’s Missing Trade, Potential Trade and New Opportunities

Journal Name:

  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This study aims to determine the potential trade of Turkey with seven geographical regions with which she intensively trades and reveals how much of this potential she uses. The main findings are as follows:On the one hand, while estimating a basic gravity equation it is confirmed that a change in the bilateral trade volume essentially depends on countries’ national income and distance between countries as expected. Nevertheless, contrary to previous studies’ findings, it is observed that border neighbourhood has a positive effect on the trade of Turkey with her neighbour countries. On the other hand, it is revealed that Turkey under-trades with her trade partners. If Turkey had fully used her trade potential during 1995-2013 period, she would have effectuated $ 65,9 billion more export and $ 42,9 billion more imports. Although the European Union (EU) is still her most important trade partner, the actual trade of Turkey with the EU is very close to her potential trade with the EU. On the contrary, there is a great gap between actual and potential trade levels of Turkey with the other regions, especially Africa and Middle East. This situation that emerged new opportunities for Turkish trade sector can be expected to have impact on the foreign trade market diversification policy of Turkey.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yoğun olarak dış ticaret yaptığı yedi coğrafi bölge ile potansiyel dış ticaretini belirlemeyi ve bu potansiyelin ne kadarını kullanabildiğini ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ana bulgular şu şekildedir: Bir taraftan, temel Çekim Denklemi (Gravity Equation) tahminlenmek suretiyle, ikili dış ticaret hacmindeki bir değişimin temel olarak ülkelerin milli gelirlerine ve ülkelerin arasındaki mesafeye bağlı olduğu, beklendiği gibi, teyit edilmiştir. Buna rağmen, önceki çalışmaların bulgularının aksine sınır komşuluğunun Türkiye’nin komşularıyla ticaretine pozitif etkisi olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Diğer taraftan, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ortaklarıyla potansiyelinin altında ticaret yaptığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Eğer Türkiye 1992-2012 döneminde ticaret potansiyelini tam olarak değerlendirseydi her yıl ortalama 65,9 milyar dolar daha fazla ihracat ve 42,9 milyar $ daha fazla ithalat yapmış olurdu. Avrupa Birliği (AB) en önemli ticari ortağı olmasına rağmen Türkiye’nin AB ile mevcut ticareti AB ile potansiyel ticaretine çok yakındır. Buna karşın, Türkiye’nin, özellikle Afrika ve Ortadoğu gibi diğer bölgeler ile mevcut ve potansiyel ticaret seviyeleri arasında büyük açık vardır. Türk dış ticaret sektörü için alternatif bölgelerde yeni fırsatlar ortaya çıkaran bu durum Türkiye’nin dış pazar çeşitlendirme politikası üzerine etki etmesi beklenebilir
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  • 1
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  • Turkish

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KULLANILAN PROGRAMLAR:
STATA 8 (2008), Data Analysis and Statistical

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