Buradasınız

Anasayfa » Content

YÜKSELEN EKONOMİLERDE DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ SEÇİMİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Journal Name:

  • Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The choice of the exchange rate regime has become one of the most important issues in international economics. Because it is the main determinant of international economic relations and it has considerable effects on national markets. In this paper, factors that affect the choice of the exchange rate regime are analyzed for 17 emerging market economies over the period 1996–2006. Binary Panel Probit Model is used to analyze the effects of these variables on the choice of exchange rate regime. According to the results, as openness increases, the choice of fixed exchange rate regime decreases in contrast to the theoretical expectations. However, this variable is statistically insignificant. As the amount of capital entering the country goes up, the preference of fixed exchange rate regime increases as well. The coefficient of this variable is also statistically insignificant. On the other hand, an increase in growth rate lead to the choice of flexible exchange rate regimes. In addition, an increase inflation rate difference between countries increases the possibility of choice of fixed exchange rate. But an increase real in exchange rate decreases the possibility of choice of fixed exchange rate.
Bookmark/Search this post with
Abstract (Original Language): 
Döviz kuru rejimleri, gerek ülkelerarası ekonomik ilişkilerin temel belirleyicisi olması, gerekse ulusal piyasaları doğrudan etkilemesi nedeni ile uluslararası iktisat literatüründe sıklıkla tartışılan bir konudur. Bu çalışmada, 17 yükselen ülke ekonomisinin 1996– 2006 yılı verileri kullanılarak ülkelerin döviz kuru rejim tercihini etkileyen faktörler, İkili Tercih Panel Probit yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, teorik beklentinin aksine dışa açıklık arttıkça, sabit döviz kuru tercihi azalmaktadır. Ancak bu değişken istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Diğer yandan ülkeye giren sermaye miktarındaki artış, sabit döviz kuru tercihini artırmakla birlikte bu değişkenin katsayısı da istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Büyüme oranındaki artış, teorik olarak beklentilerle uyumlu olarak sabit döviz kuru aleyhine bir tercihe neden olmaktadır. Ülkeler arasındaki enflasyon farkı arttıkça, sabit döviz kuru tercihi ihtimali de artmaktadır. Son olarak reel döviz kurundaki artış, sabit döviz kuru tercihini ters yönde etkilemektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
PDF icon arastirmax-yukselen-ekonomilerde-doviz-kuru-rejimi-secimi-ampirik-bir-analiz.pdf
  • 30
47
109
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

References: 

Arat, K., Türkiye’de Optimum Döviz Kuru Rejimi Seçimi ve Döviz Kurlarından
Fiyatlara Geçiş Etkisinin İncelenmesi, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası
Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Ankara, 2003.
Baltagi, Badi H., Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Willey and Sons, 2nd
ed. New York, 2001.
Calvo, G.A. and C.M. Reinhart, “Fear of Floating”, NBER Working Paper 7993,
2000, pp. 1-62.
Dreyer, Jacob S.0, “Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes for Currencies of
Developing Countries: Some Preliminary Result,” World Development,
Vol. 6, 1978, pp. 437-445.
Edison, Hali J., Melvin, Michael, “The Determinants and Implications of the
Chocie of an Exchange Rate System”, in Monetary Policy for a Volatile
Global Economy, Ed. Haraf ve Willet, Washington: The AEI Press, 1990.
Edwards, S., M.A. Savastano, “Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do
We Know? What Do We Need To Know?”, NBER Working Paper, 7228,
1999, pp. 1-74.
Edwards, S., “Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention”,
NBER Working Paper, 8529, 2001, pp. 1-67.
Edwards, S., “The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina”, NBER Working
Paper, 9257, 2002, pp. 1-24.
Ertekin, M., “Döviz Kuru Rejimleri ve Türkiye’nin Dış Ticareti”, Hazine ve Dış
Ticaret Dergisi, Yıl 9, Sayı 32, ss. 1-14.
Fischer, S., “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?”, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2001, pp. 3-24.
Frankel, J.A, S. Schmukler, L. Serven, “Verifiability and the Vanishing
Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime”, Meeting of the Brookings Trade
Forum, Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 2000, pp. 1-74.
Frankel, J.A., “No Single Currency Regime is Right For All Countries or At All
Times”, NBER Working Paper, 7338, 1999, pp. 1-41.
Greene, H. William, “Fixed and Random Effects in Nonlinear Models”, New York
University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper
Series, 2001, pp. 1-48.
Hagen, J.V., J. Zhou, “De Facto and Official Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition
Economies, Economic Systems, Vol. 29, 2005, pp. 256-275.
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Sayı: 30 Yıl: 2011/1 (47-109 s.)
108
Hall, M.G., The Political and Institutional Sources of Exchange Rate Regime
Choices in Middle-Income Developing Countries, University of California,
Political Scinece, 2002.
Halıcı, N. S., R. Uçtu, “Bir İstikrar Politikası Aracı Olarak Döviz Kuru Politika
ları”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Karaman İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
Dergisi, Cilt 4(1), 2004, ss. 185-208.
Heller, H.R., “Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices”. Journal of Money,
Credit, and Banking, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1978, pp. 308-321.
Holden, M., Holden, P., Suss, E., “The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility:
An Empirical Investigation”. The Review of Economics and Statistic, Vol.
61, 1979, pp. 327-333.
IMF, IMF Annual Reports (1996–2005),
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/index.htm, E.T. 02.08.2007.
İnan, E. A., “Kur Rejimi Tercihi ve Türkiye”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 40, 2002,
pp.36-49.
Kato, I., M. Uçtum, “Fixed, Float, or Intermediate? A Cross-Country Time Series
Analysis of Exchange-Rate Regimes”, Econometric Society, North
American Winter Meetings, 2003, pp. 1-20.
Kenen, Peter B., “The Optimum Currency Area: An Eclectic View”, in Monetary
Problems of the International Economy, eds. Mundell and Swoboda,
Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969.
Maddala G.S., “Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data”, The
Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 12, Iss. 3, 1987, pp. 307-338.
Markiewicz, A., “Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Economies: An
Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 34, 2006,
pp. 484-498.
Markiewicz, A., “Choice Of Exchange Rate Regime İn Transition Economies: An
Empirical Analysis” Journal of Comparative Economics, No. 34, June
2006, pp. 484-498.
McKinnon, Ronald L., “Optimum Currency Areas,” American Economic Review,
No. 52, 1963, pp. 717-725.
Melvin, Michael, “The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic
Stability,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 17. No. 4, 1985,
pp. 467-478.
Mundell, Robert, “The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” The American
Economic Review, No. 51, September 1961, pp. 657-661.
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Sayı: 30 Yıl: 2011/1 (47-109 s.)
109
Obstfeld, M., Kenneth Rogoff, “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates”, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 4, 1995, pp. 73-96.
Summers, Lawrence H., “International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and
Cures”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, 2000, pp. 1-16.
Ünsal, E.M., Uluslararası İktisat: Teori, Politika ve Açık Ekonomi Makro İktisadı,
İmaj Yayıncılık, Ankara, 2005.
Tiwari, R., “Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in Southheast Asia: An Empirical
Survey of De-Facto Policies”, Seminar Paper, University of Hamburg,
2003, pp. 1-32.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com