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Dezenflasyon Sürecinde Türkiye'de Enflasyonun Uzun ve Kısa Dönem Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi

Modelling The Long Run and The Short Run Dynamics of Inflation In The Disinflation Process In Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2005

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks), real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks) and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don't led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye de 2000:01-2004:12 dönemi aylık verileriyle enflasyon ile birim emek maliyetleri, üretim açığı (talep şoklarının temsilcisi), reel efektif döviz kuru (arz şoklarının temsilcisi) ve fiyat beklentileri arasındaki bağlantıyı araştırmak amacıyla Beklentilerle Genişletilmiı Philips Eğrisi Modeli kullanılmaktadr. Çalışmada uygulanan metodoloji sırasıyla birim kök testi; modeldeki değişkenler arasında olası uzun dönem ilişkilerin incelenmesi için Johansen Ebütünleşme Testi ve enflasyonun kısa dönem dinamiklerinin araştırılması için EKK Yöntemi ile sadece enflasyon denklemi için tahmin edilen hata düzeltme modelidir. Çalışmada uzun dönemde birim emek maliyetlerinin üzerinde ürün fiyatlandrması şeklindeki mark-up fiyatlama davranışının enflasyonun temel nedeni olduğu, döviz kurunun enflasyonun düşüşünde oldukça önemli bir etkisi olduğu ve talep şoklarının fiyatlarda arüşa yol açmadığı bulunmuştur. Enflasyon denkleminin kısa dönem dinamikleri kısa dönemde arz şoklarının enflasyonun belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca ksa dönemde döviz kurunun en hızlı enflasyon düzeltmesine yol açan değişken olduğu bulunmuştur.
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