Buradasınız

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE CARİ AÇIĞIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

MAIN DETERMINERS OF CURRENT DEFICITS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Abstract (2. Language): 
One of the main economic problems of developing nations is the deficit of current account and policy preference which would be implemented to reduce it. Such dynamics as the structural change based on machine and technology importation for industrial investments during development process, as well as differentiation in the structure of demand due to increasing income result in persistent and rising deficit of current accounts. Reducing the deficit and keeping it under control might be possible only by determining essential variables affecting current accounts. In this study, using the data of 19 selected developing economies for the period of 1980- 2006, the determiners of current account deficit is tested with the methodology of panel data analysis. The analysis indicates that growth rate, investments and increases in public expenditures increase the deficit, while improving terms of foreign trade, the rate of openness, global rate of growth, and rises in world interest rates reduce it.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin temel iktisadi sorunlarından biri, kronik cari açık ve bu açığın giderilmesinde uygulanacak politikanın seçimidir. Kalkınma sürecinde sanayi yatırımları başta olmak üzere makine ve teknoloji ithalatına dayalı yapısal değişim yanında artan gelirden beslenen talep niteliğindeki farklılaşma, vb dinamikler, cari işlemler açığının artmasına ve sürekli hale gelmesine neden olmaktadır. Cari işlemler açığını azaltmak veya kontrol altında tutmak, onu etkileyen temel değişkenlerin belirlenmesi ile mümkün olacaktır. Bu çalışmada, 19 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 1980-2006 dönemi verilerinden yararlanılarak cari işlemler açığının belirleyicileri panel veri analizi yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Bu ülkelerde büyüme oranı, yatırımlar ve kamu harcamalarındaki artışın cari işlemler açığını artırdığı, dış ticaret hadlerindeki iyileşme, dışa açıklık oranı, dünya büyüme oranı ve dünya faiz oranlarındaki artışın ise cari işlemler açığını azaltıcı yönde etkide bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.
1
28

REFERENCES

References: 

Aristovnik, Aleksander (2007), “Short – and Medium- Term Determinants of Current Account
Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries”, The William Davidson Institute
Working Paper, The University of Michigan, No: 862.
Aristovnik, Aleksander (2006), “The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account
Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union”, The William Davidson Institute
Working Paper, The University of Michigan, No: 827.
Aydoğuş, İsmail ve Harun Öztürkler (2006), Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığı Sorununun Analizi,
Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi Y.
Bagnai, Alberto, and Stefano Manzocchi (1998), “Current Account Reversals in Developing
Countries: The Role of Fundamentals”, Open Economic Review, Vol. 10., No. 10, pp.143-163.
Baltagi, Badi (2001), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd Ed., UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bussiere, Matthieu, Marcel Fratzscher, and Gernot J. Müler (2004), “Current Account
Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries- An Intertemporal Approach”, Working paper
series, European Central Bank, No: 311.
Calderon, Cesar, Alberto Chong, and Norman Loayza (2000), “Determinants of Current Account
Deficits in Developing Conutries”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 2398.
KOSBED (22) 2011/2 27
Chinn, Menzie, and Eswar S. Prasad (2000), “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts
in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Emprical Exploration”, NBR Working Paper
Series, No: 7581.
Darrat, Ali F. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?”, Southern
Economic Journal, No. 54, pp. 879-887.
Debelle, Guy, and Hamid Farequee (1996), “What Determinants the Currnet Account? A cross-
Sectional and Panel Data Approach”, IMF Working Paper, No: 58.
Enders, Walter, and Bong Soo Lee (1990), “Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or
Distant Cousins?”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, pp. 373- 381.
Erdinç, Zeynep (2008), “İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 Yılları Arasında
Eşbütünleşme Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile İncelenmesi”, Anadolu University
Journal of Social Sciences, Cilt (Sayı): 8(1), ss. 209-222.
Freund, Caroline L. (2000), “Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries”, World
Bank- Development Economies Research Group International Finance Discussion Paper,
No: 69, pp. 483- 512.
Gerber, James (2007), International Economics, 4th Ed., Boston: Pearson.
Glick, Reuven, and Kenneth Rogoff (1995), “Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks
and the Current Account”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, pp. 159-192.
Greenee, William. H. (2003), Econometric Analysis, 5th Ed., New York: Prentice Hall.
Heitger, Bernhard (2001), “The Scope of Government and Its Impact on Economic Growth in
OECD Countries”, Kiel Working Paper, No: 1034.
Herwartz, Helmut, and Florian Siedenburg (2007), “Determinants of Current Account
Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-of-Sample Perspective”, Review of World
Economics, Vol.(No): 143(2), July, pp. 349-374.
Im, Kyung S., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in
Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, pp. 53-74.
Kennedy, Peter (2006), Ekonometri Klavuzu, (çev. Muzaffer Sarımeşeli ve Şenay Açıkgöz), 5.
Baskı, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi Y.
Krugman, Paul, Richard E. Baldwin, Barry Bosworth, and Peter Hooper (1987), “The Persistence
of the US Trade Deficit”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No:1.
Lebe, Selim Kayhan, Uğur Adıgüzel ve Burak Yiğit (2009), “The Empirical Analysis of the Effets
of Economic Growth and Exchange Rate on Current Account Deficit: Romania and Turkey
Samples”, Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, Vol.(No): 4(1), Spring, pp. 69- 81.
Metzler, Llyod A. (1948), “The Theory of International Trade”, in Howard S. Ellis (ed.), A
Survey of Contemporary Economics, Philadelphia: Blakiston.
28 Yusuf Bayraktutan ve Işıl Demirtaş
Milesi-Fretti, Gian, and Assaf Razin (1998), “Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises:
Emprical Regularities”, NBER Working Paper, No. 6620.
Miller, Norman C. (2002), Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Theories, UK: Edward Elgar.
Miller, Stephen M., and Frank S. Russek (1989), “Are the Twin Deficits Really Related?”,
Contemporary Policy, Vol. 7, pp. 91-115.
Morsy, Hannan (2009), “Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries”, IMF
Working Paper, WP/09/28.
Mundell, Robert (1968), The Balance of Payments, International Encyclopedia of the Social
Sciences, New York: Crowell-Collier and Macmillan, Inc.
Mundell, Robert (1960), “The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and
Flexible Exchange Rates”, The Quaterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2, pp. 227-257.
Mundell, Robert (1961), “The International Disequilibrium System”, Kyklos, Vol. 14, pp. 153–71.
Obstfeld, Maurice (1982), “Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-
Metzler Effect”, Quaterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 97, pp. 251-270.
Oskee, M.ohsen B. (1985), “Devaluation and the J-Curve : Some Evidence from LDCs”, The
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, No.3, pp.500-504.
Pazarlıoğlu, M. Vedat. ve Özlem K. Gürler (2007), “Telekomünikasyon Yatırımları ve Ekonomik
Büyüme: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı”, Finans Politik&Ekonomik Yorumlar, Cilt (Sayı): 44 (508), ss. 35-43.
Reisen, Helmut (1997), “Excessive Current Account Deficits”, World Institute for
Development Economic Research, No. 133.
Saraçoğlu, Bedriye ve Nükhet Doğan (2005), “Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri ve Avrupa Birliğine Aday
Ülkelerin Yakınsama Analizi”, VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul,
26-27 Mayıs 2005, http://www.ekonometridernegi.org/ bildiriler/o10s1.pdf/30.06.2010.
Swamy, P. A. V. B., and S. S. Arora (1972), “The Exact Finite Sample Properties of the
Esitmator of Coefficients in the Error Components Regression Model”, Econometrica,
Vol.(No): 40(2), pp. 261- 275.
Uzay, Nisfet (2002), “Kamu Büyüklüğü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği
(1970-1999)”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Sayı: 19, ss. 151-172.
Ventura, Jaume (2002), “Towards a Theory of Current Accounts”, NBER Working Papers, No: 9163.
Wallace, T. D., and Ashiq Hussain (1969), “The Use of Error Components Models in Combining
Cross-Section with Time Series Data”, Econometrica, Vol.(No): 37(1), pp. 55-72.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com