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PARASAL KRİZLERE NEDEN OLAN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ANALİZİ

Journal Name:

  • Akademik Bakış

Publication Year:

  • 2006

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper survey the common factors that increased probability of currency crises in Turkey in 1980-2003 period using binary probit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates and low international reserves are associated with currency crises. The another significant variables are M2/international reserves, bank deposits, domestic credit, and foreign liabilities. Relative to external variables, domestic and financial variables contributed much more to probability of crises in Turkey. Real exchange rate, export and import are not significant variables. Also this paper find that currency crises in Turkey in 1980-2003 are explained by means of of first-and-third generation models
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, 1980-2003 döneminde Türkiye’de meydana gelen parasal kriz olasılığını arttıran ortak faktörleri inceler. Bulgular, iktisadi büyüme hızının düşük, enflasyon oranının yüksek olduğu durumlarda krizlerin ortaya çıkma eğiliminde olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca yüksek reel faiz oranları ve düşük uluslararası rezervler de parasal krizlerle ilişkilidir. Diğer anlamlı değişkenler, M2/rezervler, banka mevduatları, iç kredi ve döviz yükümlülükleridir. Dışsal değişkenlere nazaran finansal ve içsel değişkenler, Türkiye’deki finansal krizlere daha fazla katkı yapmıştır. Reel döviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalat, anlamlı olmayan değişkenlerdir. Bu çalışma ayrıca, 1980-2003 yılları arasında Türkiye’de meydana gelen parasal krizlerin birinci ve üçüncü nesil kriz modelleri ile açıklanabildiğini bulmuştur.
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