Buradasınız

PARASAL KRİZLERE NEDEN OLAN FAKTÖRLER: TÜRKİYE ANALİZİ

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper survey the common factors that increased probability of currency crises in Turkey in 1980-2003 period using binary probit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates and low international reserves are associated with currency crises. The another significant variables are M2/international reserves, bank deposits, domestic credit, and foreign liabilities. Relative to external variables, domestic and financial variables contributed much more to probability of crises in Turkey. Real exchange rate, export and import are not significant variables. Also this paper find that currency crises in Turkey in 1980-2003 are explained by means of of first-and-third generation models
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, 1980-2003 döneminde Türkiye’de meydana gelen parasal kriz olasılığını arttıran ortak faktörleri inceler. Bulgular, iktisadi büyüme hızının düşük, enflasyon oranının yüksek olduğu durumlarda krizlerin ortaya çıkma eğiliminde olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca yüksek reel faiz oranları ve düşük uluslararası rezervler de parasal krizlerle ilişkilidir. Diğer anlamlı değişkenler, M2/rezervler, banka mevduatları, iç kredi ve döviz yükümlülükleridir. Dışsal değişkenlere nazaran finansal ve içsel değişkenler, Türkiye’deki finansal krizlere daha fazla katkı yapmıştır. Reel döviz kuru, ihracat ve ithalat, anlamlı olmayan değişkenlerdir. Bu çalışma ayrıca, 1980-2003 yılları arasında Türkiye’de meydana gelen parasal krizlerin birinci ve üçüncü nesil kriz modelleri ile açıklanabildiğini bulmuştur.
1-21

REFERENCES

References: 

Aizenman, Joshua (2003). “Predicting Financial Crises : Early Warning Systems”,
NBER,1-50.
Amemiya, Takeshi (1981). “Qualitative Response Models: A Survey”, Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol.19, No.4, 1483-1536.
Chang, Roberto, Velasco, Andres (1998). “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A
Canonical Model” NBER Working Paper 6606, 1-45.
Diamond, Douglas W., Dybvig, Philip H. (1983). “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and
Liquidity”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.91, No.3, 401-419.
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K., Wyplosz, Charles (1996). “Contagious
Currency Crises”, NBER Working Paper 5681, 1-48.
Frankel Jeffrey and Rose, Andrew K. (1996). “Currency Crashes in Emerging
Markets: Empirical Indicators”, NBER, Working Paper No. 5437, 1-29.
Goldstein Morris and Turner Philip (1996). “Banking Crises in Emerging Economies:
Origins and Policy Options”, BIS Economic Papers, No.46, 1-67.
Goldstein Morris, Kaminsky Graciela, Reinhart Carmen (2000). Assessing Financial
Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets, Instute for International
Economics.
Goldstein, Morris (1998). “Early Warning İndicators of Currency and Banking Crises
in Emerging Economies”, Financial Crises and Asia Centre for Economic Policy
Research,48-53.
Griffiths, William E. R., Hill, Carter, Judge, George G. (1993). Learning and
Practicing Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Gujarati, Damador N. (1988). Basic Econometrics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Inc.
Hutchison, Michael (1999 ). “Early Warning Indicators of Banking Sector Distress”,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco Economic Letter, 998-28.
International Monetary Fund (1998). World Economic Outlook, Washington.
Kaminsky, Graciela L. (2003). “Varities of Currency Crises”, NBER, Working Paper,
No.10193, 1-26.
Kaminsky, Graciela, Lizondo Saul and Reinhart, Carmen (1998). “Leading Indicators
of Currency Crises”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol.5, No.1, 1-48.
Krugman, Paul (1979). “A Model of Balance of Payment Crises”, Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, Vol.11, Issue 3, 311-325.
Krugman, Paul (1998). “Currency Crises”, (Çevrimiçi)
http//web.mit.edu/Krugman/www/crises.html.
Krugman, Paul (1998a). “What Happened to Asia?”, (Çevrimiçi),
http://Web.mit.edu.krugman/www.DISINTER.html.
Krugman, Paul (1999). “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”,
International Tax and Public Finance, 459-472.
Krugman, Paul (2002). “Analytical Afterthoughts on the Asian Crisis”, (Çevrimiçi),
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/MINICRIS.html.
McKinnon, Ronald I. and Pill, Huw (1999). “Exchange Rate Regimes For Emerging
Markets: Moral Hazard And International Overborrowing”, Oxford Review of Economic
Policy,1-36.
Obstfeld Maurice (1986). “Rational and Sel-Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises”,
The American Economic Review, Vol.76, No.1, 72-81.
Obstfeld, Maurice (1994). “The Logic of Currency Crises”, NBER Working Paper
Series, Working Paper No.4640, 1-54.
Rangvid, Jesper (2001). “Second Generation Models of Currency Crises”, Journal of
Economic Surveys, Vol.15, No.5, 615-646.
Salant Stephen W. and Henderson D. W. (1978). “Market Anticipations of
Government Policies and the Price of Gold”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.86, No.4,
627-648.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com