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Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis of Turkey, 1979-2011

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Üzerine Zaman Serisi Analizi, 1979-2011

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarla (DYY) ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmadaki tüm analizlerde, Türkiye için 1979-2011 dönemini kapsayan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak uygulanan ADF birim kök testi sonucuna göre değişkenlerin durağan olmadıkları fakat birinci fark değerlerinde durağan oldukları gözlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Johansen eşbütünleşme test sonucu iki serinin eşbütünleşik olduğunu ve DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli pozitif bir ilişkinin devam ettiğini belirtmiştir. Granger nedensellik testi doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.
Abstract (Original Language): 
This paper attempts to examine the causality relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDPGR) in Turkey using the time-series techniques. All analyses are conducted with the annual data of foreign direct investment and real gross domestic product of Turkey over the period of 1979-2011. The results of the ADF unit root test show that the time-series variable are non-stationary atlevels, but become stationary in the first differences. Besides, the results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that both series are co-integrated and a positive long-run relationship exists between FDI and GDPGR. Findings of the Granger-causality method suggest that there is a bi-directional causalitybetween them.

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