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Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye'nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı

The Effect of Tourism Sector on the Economic Growth of Turkey: VAR Analysis Approach

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Tourism, a service sector, has shown a very rapid development throughout the world. Today, tourism sector accounts for the 30% of total world services trade on its own. Net contribution of tourism to the economies of countries cannot be calculated precisely in that tourism is a coalescence of sectors, that is, it embodies a number of large and small service sectors. Nevertheless, theoretical and empirical studies on this subject, in both national and international literature, have revealed that tourism has a positive effect on economic growth. Based on this consideration, it is seen that tourism in Turkey, which is a tourism country, developed rapidly especially after 1980 and tried to gain competitive advantage in international tourism sector, consistently with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. In this context, the aim of this study is to test whether there is a long term relationship between tourism and economic growth, and to display the likely contribution of the sector to economic growth. Time series regarding the tourism receipts of 1963¬2004 and GNP have been analyzed through VAR model. The empirical findings obtained have shown that tourism has had a positive effect on economic growth, and the cointegration test has proved that there is a mutual relationship between the two variables in the long term.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bir hizmet sektörü olan turizmin, tüm dünya genelinde çok büyük bir hızla gelişme gösterdiği görülmektedir. Bugün, tüm dünya hizmet ticaretinin yaklaşık %30'unu turizm sektörü tek başına oluşturmaktadır. Turizm bir sektörler kesiti olduğu için, diğer bir deyişle bünyesinde irili ufaklı birçok hizmet sektörünü barındırdığı için, ülke ekonomilerine katkısı tam olarak hesaplanamamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, ulusal ve uluslararası literatürde konuya ilişkin olarak yapılan teorik ve ampirik çalışmalardan, turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğu da anlaşılmaktadır. Buradan hareketle, bir turizm ülkesi olan Türkiye'de Heckscher ve Ohlin teorisine de uygun olarak, turizmin özellikle 1980 sonrası hızlı bir şekilde geliştiği ve uluslararası turizm sektöründe rekabetçi bir üstünlük elde edilmeye çalışıldığı görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, turizm ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını test etmek ve bu sektörün ekonomik büyümeye ilişkin olası katkısını ortaya koymaktır. Böylece, 1963-2004 yılları arasındaki turizm gelirleri ile GSMH'dan oluşan değişkenlere ait zaman serisi, VAR modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar, turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etki meydana getirdiğini ve yapılan eş bütünleşme testine göre de, her iki değişken arasında uzun dönemde karşılıklı bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir.

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O. Bahar / Turizm
Sektörünün
Türkiye'nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi:
VAR Analizi Yaklaşımı
WTO (2004), Tourism Highlights, World Tourism Organization, Madrid.
www.turizm.gov.tr
www.tcmb.gov.tr
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