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Enerji Piyasası Reformlarının Elektrik Enerjisi Piyasasına Etkisi: EÜAŞ ve Ayrıcalıklı Şirketler Üzerine Bir Analiz

Reforms The Effects of The Energy Market Reforms on Electricity Market: The Case of EUAS and Privileged Companies

Journal Name:

  • Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2010

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The market of electricity energy formed an important step of the policy and implementation of privatization and liberalization beginning on 1980's and very important laws were put into force about this issue and some important changes about running of the markets were made. However, the matter whether the radical changes collected under the heading "Reforms for Energy Market" are sufficient or not for forming a healthy energy marker is still under discussion. In this study the generation data covering 38 years between 1970 - 2007 about the total electricity generation, electricity generation of Electricity Generation Co. Inc.(EUAS) and privileged companies, an establishment generating electricity, were used and they were made suitable to the ARIMA Model, which will be used during analysis, subjecting these data to some statistical and visual tests. Following this, selecting the best one in the model formed, it was gone to intervention analysis. In this stage, adding the dummy variables to the model, the influence of the reforms was tested. As a conclusion, the available findings about how the reforms have an effect on the electricity generations of the EUAS and privileged companies generating energy were interpreted and it was suggested that it had not a significant and positive effect in the short term.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
1980'li yıllarda başlayan özelleştirme ve serbestleştirme politika ve uygulamalarının önemli bir ayağını elektrik enerjisi piyasaları oluşturmuş, bu konuda pek çok önemli kanun yürürlüğe konmuş ve piyasaların işleyişine ilişkin önemli değişiklikler yapılmıştır. Ancak enerji piyasası reformları başlığı altında toplanan bu köklü değişikliklerin sağlıklı bir enerji piyasası oluşturulması için yeterli olup olmadığı hala tartışma konusudur. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de elektrik üretimini gerçekleştiren kuruluşlardan EÜAŞ ve ayrıcalıklı şirketlerin üretimlerine ilişkin 1970¬2007 yılları arasında 38 yılı kapsayan üretim verileri veriler kullanılmış, bu veriler bir takım istatistiki ve görsel testlerden geçirilerek analizde kullanılacak olan ARIMA Modeline uygun hale getirilmiştir. Sonrasında veriler kullanılarak oluşturulan modeller içerisinde en uygunu seçilerek müdahale analizine geçilmiştir. Bu aşamada modele kukla değişkenler ilave edilerek reformların etkisi sınanmıştır. Sonuç olarak reformların EÜAŞ ve ayrıcalıklı şirketlerin elektrik üretimleri üzerinde nasıl bir etkiye sahip olduğuna ilişkin eldeki bulgular yorumlanmış, mevcut reformların söz konusu kuruluşların elektrik enerjisi üretimi üzerinde kısa vadede olumlu bir etkiye sahip olmadığı ortaya konmuştur.
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REFERENCES

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