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Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi

Empirical Analysis of Budget Deficits

Journal Name:

  • Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2012

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, the sustainability of budget deficit in Turkey tested with a bounds testing approach by using monthly data 1987-2010 period. Following empirical findings were reached in the study investigating three sub-term and full-term. Determined that budget deficits are sustainable in weak form the periods of 1987:01-1994:03, 1994:04-2001:01 and 1987:01-2010:12, but it is sustainable in strong form the period of 2001:02-2010:12. As a result of causality analysis made according to error correction modelIn this study, the sustainability of budget deficit in Turkey tested with a bounds testing approach by using monthly data 1987-2010 period. Following empirical findings were reached in the study investigating three sub-term and full-term. Determined that budget deficits are sustainable in weak form the periods of 1987:01-1994:03, 1994:04-2001:01 and 1987:01-2010:12, but it is sustainable in strong form the period of 2001:02-2010:12. As a result of causality analysis made according to error correction model, budget revenues are the cause of budget expenditures., budget revenues are the cause of budget expenditures.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, sınır testi yaklaşımıyla, 1987-2010 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Üç alt dönem ve tam dönemin araştırıldığı çalışmada şu ampirik bulgulara ulaşılmıştır: bütçe açıklarının; 1987:01-1994:03, 1994:04-2001:01 ve 1987:01-2010:12 dönemlerinde zayıf formda, 2001:02-2010:12 döneminde ise güçlü formda sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeline göre yapılan nedensellik analizinde ise, bütün dönemlerde, bütçe gelirleri, bütçe harcamalarının nedeni çıkmıştır.
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REFERENCES

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