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TÜRKİYE’DE KONSOLİDE BÜTÇE AÇIKLARIYLA-İÇ BORÇLANMA FAİZ ORANLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

The Relationship Between Consolidated Budget Deficits and Interest Rates By Securities In Turkey: Econometric An Analysis

Journal Name:

  • Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2010

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, the relationship between the interest rates by securities and consolidated budget deficits in Turkey is analyzed by co-integration method for the period from 1992:01-2005:12. The empirical evidence of the study suggests that there is a linear relation between the interest rates by securities and consolidated budget deficits in the longrun. But the relation is not significant between interest rates by securities and current account deficit in the short-run. The error- correction term of the model’s being -0.611 shows that, short-run deviations are in accord with convergence toward long-run equilibrium 61% at every period.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de iç borçlanma faiz oranlarıyla konsolide bütçe açıkları arasındaki ilişki, eş-bütünleşme yöntemi yardımıyla, 1992:01-2005:12 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulgularına göre, uzun dönemde iç borçlanma faiz oranlarıyla konsolide bütçe açıkları arasında doğrusal bir ilişki ortaya çıkmıştır. Kısa dönemde ise, faiz oranlarıyla bütçe açığı arasındaki ilişki anlamlı çıkmamıştır. Modelin hata düzeltme teriminin -0.611 çıkması, kısa dönem sapmalarının her dönem %61 oranında uzun dönem denge düzeyine yakınlaşacağı anlamına gelmektedir
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
193-206
  • Turkish

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