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SPOT VE VADELİ İŞLEM FİYATLARININ VARYANSLARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

Journal Name:

  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB). Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996) is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Finansal piyasalarda meydana gelen dalgalanmalar yatırımcılar ve özellikle de işletmeler açısından risk yönetiminin ve vadeli işlemlerin önemini artırmaktadır. Vadeli ile spot piyasalar arasındaki etkileşim, spot ve vadeli işlemlerin fiyatının belirlenmesinde önemli bir role sahiptir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada VOB'ta işlem gören İMKB100 Endeksi, ABD doları ve Euro vadeli işlem (futures) fiyatlarının spot fiyatları ile nedenselliği incelenmiştir. İlişkiyi belirleyebilmek amacıyla Cheung ve Ng (1996) tarafından geliştirilen dinamik nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Dinamik nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, İMKB100 Endeks modelinde spot vadeli işlemi etkilemekte, döviz modellerinde ise vadeli işlem fiyatların spot fiyatları etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
49-66
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

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