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BİLİŞİM TEKNOLOJİSİ PROJELERİNDE REEL OPSİYONLAR

REAL OPTIONS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROJECTS

Journal Name:

  • Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2009

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Many sources such as the immaturity, complexity and unpredictable evolution of the technologies themselves, and the difficulty of predicting the market demand generally cause uncertainty in the Information Technology (IT) projects. Managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain IT projects, as management can continuously gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and, based on this information, change its course of action. As traditional capital budgeting (or project appraisal) approaches fail to consider embedded managerial flexibility in projects, the new investment evaluation approach called “real options” has come on the scene recently. “Options thinking,” an emerging investment management philosophy based on the theory of financial options can provide a promising foundation for hedging the risks under uncertainty. This paper aims at analyzing a real IT investment having growth opportunities by using real options approach. Specifically, the value of investing in a software project as well as embedded flexibility in this opportunity is modeled as an option contract. The expected costs required for completing the project and thereafter the resulting asset value are considered as the base-case parameters of this contract. Option values derived from Binomial method are used for evaluating the project and the optimal investment policy is determined based on these values. As a result, it is shown that the value of an IT project having flexibility can differ from one obtained with traditional capital budgeting methods and a rejected project which was seen as unprofitable before can turn a profitable one through embedded flexibilities
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Çoğu zaman teknolojilerin olgunlaşmamış olması, karmaşıklığı, bu teknolojilerin kendilerinin tahmin edilemez gelişimi ve pazar talebini önceden tahmin etmenin zorluğu gibi nedenler Bilişim Teknolojisi (BT) projelerinde belirsizliğe neden olmaktadır. Belirsiz proje ve pazar karakteristikleri hakkında sürekli bilgi toplayabilen ve bu bilgiye dayalı olarak kararlarını ve aksiyonlarını revize edebilen bir yönetim söz konusu ise, yönetsel esneklik, belirsiz BT projeleri bağlamında bir değere sahiptir. Geleneksel sermaye bütçeleme (ya da proje değerleme) yöntemleri, projelerde gizli olan bu yönetsel esnekliği doğru değerleyemediğinden, son zamanlarda “reel opsiyonlar” olarak adlandırılan yeni bir değerleme yaklaşımı ortaya çıkmıştır. Finansal opsiyon teorisine dayanan bir yatırım yönetimi yaklaşımı olarak “opsiyonlarla düşünme”, projelerdeki belirsizlik durumlarında risklerden korunmayı sağlayabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, büyüme esnekliğine sahip gerçek bir BT yatırımını reel opsiyonlar yaklaşımı ile analiz etmektir. Spesifik olarak, bir yazılım projesine yatırım yapmanın ve bu fırsatın barındırdığı esnekliklerin değeri, bir opsiyon sözleşmesi olarak modellenmiştir. Bu sözleşmede, temel alınan durum değişkenleri olarak, projenin tamamlanması ile elde edilen varlığın değeri ve projeyi tamamlamanın beklenen maliyeti söz konusudur. Binom yaklaşımına dayalı olarak elde edilen opsiyon değerleri, projenin değerlendirilmesinde dikkate alınmış ve bu değerlere bağlı olarak optimal yatırım politikası belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, bir BT projesinin barındırdığı esnekliklere bağlı olarak değerinin, geleneksel sermaye bütçeleme yöntemleri ile elde edilen değerden daha farklı olabileceği ve kazançsız görülüp reddedilen bir projenin bu esnekliklerle daha karlı bir projeye dönüşebileceği gösterilmiştir.
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