Buradasınız

TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME, BEŞERİ SERMAYE VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLERİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ: 1970–2005

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, HUMAN CAPITAL AND EXPORT IN TURKEY: 1970-2007

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper aims to examine long-run and the causal relationships between economic growth, export and human capital in Turkey by using VAR analysis and Granger causality tests over the period 1996–2007. Our findings indicate that a positive and significant long-run relationship exists between economic growth, export, physical capital formation and human capital. Moreover, no direct Granger effect of human capital on economic growth has been found, human capital fosters economic growth in an indirect way for a reason that human capital contributes to export and physical capital formation. Empirical results show that there is a trade effects on growth and export-led growth hypothesis.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma, 1970–2007 dönemi yıllık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de beşeri sermaye, sabit sermaye, ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi eşbütünleşme ve değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ampirik uygulamada ekonomik büyüme, beşeri sermaye, sabit sermaye ve ihracat arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca beşeri sermayenin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde doğrudan Granger etkiye yol açmadığı, beşeri sermayenin sabit sermaye ve ihracata katkıda bulunarak dolaylı bir şekilde ekonomik büyümeyi artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar büyüme üzerinde dış ticaretin etkili olduğu ve böylece ihracat odaklı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olabileceğini göstermiştir.
33-56

REFERENCES

References: 

AFŞAR, Muharrem; (2009), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme
İlişkisi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(1),
ss. 85-98.
AGHION, Philippe ve Peter HOWITT; (1992), “A Model of Growth Through
Creative Destruction”, Econometrica, 60(2), ss. 323-351.
ARTADI, Elsa V. ve Xavier SALA-I-MARTIN; (2003); The Economic Tragedy
of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa, NBER Working Paper
No.9865, NBER, Cambridge, MA, ss.1-33.
ATİK, Hayriye; (2006), Beşeri Sermaye Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme,
Ekin Kitabevi, Ankara, 137s.
AZARIADIS, Costas ve Allan DRAZEN; (1990), “Threshold Externalities in
Economic Development,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(2),
ss. 501-526.
BAHARUMSHAH, Ahmad Zubaidi ve ALMASAIED, Suleiman W.; (2009),
Emerging Markets Finance & Trade / 45(1), January-February ss.
90–102
BARRO, Robert J.; (1990), ” Government Spending in a Simple Endogenous
Growth Model”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(3), ss.103–S125.
BARRO, Robert .J.; (1997), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-
Country Study, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 145s.
BARRO, Robert J.; (1999), “Human Capital and Growth in Cross-Country
Regressions”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, 6(2), ss. 237–77.
BARRO, Robert J. ve Jong-wha LEE; (1993), “International Comparisons of
Educational Attainment,”Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3),
ss.363–94.
BARRO, Robert J. ve Xavier SALAI-MARTIN; (1995), Economic Growth,
Mcgraw-Hill, New York, 529s.
BARRO, Robert J.; (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of
Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2), ss. 407–43.
BECKER, S. Gary., Kevin. M. MURPHY ve Robert. F. TAMURA; (1990),
Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth, NBER Working
Paper Series No:3414, ss.1-44.
BENHABIB, Jess ve Mark M. SPIEGEL; (1994), “The Role of Human Capital
in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country
Data,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(2), ss. 143–73.BIRDSALL, Nancy., Thomas C. PINCKNEY ve Robert. SABOT; (2000),
“Natural Resources, Human Capital,and Growth”, Carnegie
Endowment Working Papers, Number 9, ss.1-20.
BREMPONG, Kwabena Gyimah, Oliver PADDISON ve Workie MITIKU;
(2006), “Higher Education and Economic Growth in Africa”,
Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), ss. 509–529.
CASELLI, Francesco, ESQUIVEL, Gerardo ve LEFORT, Fernando; (1996)
“Reopening The Convergence Debate: A New Look At Crosscountry
Growth Empirics”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1, ss. 363–89.
CHUANG, Yih Chyi; (2000), “Human Capital, Exports and Economic Growth:
A Causality Analysis for Taiwan 1952–1995”, Review of
International Economics, 8(4), ss. 712-720.
CHUANG, Yih-chyi; (1998), “Learning By Doing, the Technology Gap and
Growth,” International Economic Review, 39(3), ss. 697-721.
CONTRACTOR, Farok. J. ve Susan. M. MUDAMBI; (2008), “The Influence
of Human Capital Investment on the Exports of Services and Goods:
An Analysis of the Top 25 Services Outsourcing Countries,”
Management Inter national Review, 48 (4), ss. 433-445.
DEUTSHE BANK; (2005), Human Capital is The Key to Growth, Deutche
Bank Research, ss.1-19
DICKEY, David ve Wayne A FULLER; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics
For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Econometrica,
49(4), ss. 1057-1072.
DICKEY, David. A. ve Wayne. A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribution of The Estimators
For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal
of American Statistical Association 74, ss. 427-431.
DOLLAR, David; (1992), “Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really
Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence From 95 LDCs, 1976–1985,”
Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(3), ss. 523–544.
GENÇ, Murat.C., Mustafa K. DEĞER ve Metin BERBER; (2009), “Beşeri
Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Üzerine Nedensellik
Analizi”, International 7th Knowledge, Economy &
Management Congress Proceedings, Uluslararası 7. Bilgi, Ekonomi
ve Yönetim Kongresi, ss. 48-60.
GRANGER, Clive W.J. ve NEWBOLD, P.; (1974), “Spurious Regressions in
Economics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), July, ss. 111-120.
GROSSMAN, Gene M. ve Elhanan HELPMAN; (1991), Innovation and
Growth in the Global Economy, MA MIT Pres, Cambridge, 375s.GÜNEŞ, Şahabettin; (2006), “Dış Ticaretin Uzun Dönem Dengesi Üzerine
Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 21 (245), ss.
93-102.
HALL, Robert E. ve JONES, Charles; (1999), “Why Do Some Countries Produce
So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?”, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 114(1), ss. 83–116.
HARRIS, Richard ve Robert SOLLIS; (2003), Applied Time Series Modelling
And Forecasting, John Wiley. 298s.
HARRISON, Ann; (1996), “Openness and Growth: A Time-series, Cross-
Country Analysis for Developing Countries,” Journal of
Development Economics, 48(2), ss.419–447.
HESTON, Alan, Robert SUMMERS ve Aten BETTINA; (2010), Penn World
Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisions at the
University of Pennsylvania (CICUP).
JOHANSEN Soren ve Katerina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood
Estimation and Inference on Cointegration –with Application to the
Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
52(2), ss.169-210.
JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), ss. 231-254.
JONES, Charles I.; (2001), İktisadi Büyümeye Giriş, (Çev: Sanlı Ateş ve İsmail
Tuncer), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul, 220s.
KARAGÖL, Erdal ve Alpaslan SEREL; (2005), Türkiye’de İhracat ve GSMH
Arasındaki İlişkinin Kointegrasyon Yöntemiyle İncelenmesi, İ.Ü. İktisat
Fakültesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, Cilt:50, ss.
1029-1041.
GYIMAH-BREMPONG, Kwabena, Oliver PADDISON ve Workie MITIKU;
(2006), “Higher Education and Economic Growth In Africa”,
Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), ss. 509–529.
LEVIN, Andrew Lakshmi ve Lakshmi K. RAUT; (1997), “Complementarities
Between Exports and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence
from the Semi Industrialized Countries,” Economic Development
and Cultural Change, 46, ss.155-174.
LUCAS, Robert E., Jr.; (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic
Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), ss. 3 -42.
MANKIW, N.Gregory, David ROMER ve David N. WEIL; (1992), “A
Contribution to The Empirics Of Economic Growth”, Quarterly
journal of Economics, 107(2), ss. 407–37.McMAHON, Walter W. (2002), Education and Development: Measuring the
Social Benefits, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 299s.
MOSLEHI Adel, Ali MOHAGHAR, Alireza TAMIZI ve Sanaz BAYATI;
(2006), “Intellectual Capital And Export Development, An Examination
in Four Service Industries,” IEEE International Conference on
Management of Innovation and Technology, ss.407-441.
NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar ve Russel SMYTH; (2004), “Temporal Causality
and the Dynamics of Exports, Human Capital and Real Income in
China,” International Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1). ss.24-
45.
NELSON, Richard ve Edmund PHELPS; (1966), “Investment In Humans,
Technological Diffusion And Economic Growth”, American Economic
Review, 61, ss. 69–75.
OSIPIAN, Ararat. L.; (2009), “ The Impact of Human Capital on Economic
growth: A Case Study in Post-Soviet Ukraine, 1989-2009”,
Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 240s.
PETRAKIS, Panagiotis E. ve D. STAMATAKIS; (2002), “Growth and Educational
Levels: A Comparative Analysis”, Economics of Education
Review, 21(5), ss. 513–21.
PHILLIPS, Peter C.B. ve Pierre PERRON; (1988), “Testing for A Unit Root in
Time Series Regression”, Biomètrika, 75(2), ss. 336-346.
PISSARIDES, Christopher; (1997), “Learning by Trading and the Returns to
Human Capital in Developing Countries,” World Bank Economic
Review, 11(1), ss. 17-32.
ROMER, Paul M.; (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The
Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), ss. 1002-1037
ROMER, Paul M.; (1990), “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence,”
Carnegie–Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
32(1), ss. 251–286.
SARKAR, Dipanwita; (2007), “The Role of Human Capital In Economic
Growth Revisited”, Applied Economics Letters, 2007, 14, ss.419–
423
SALA-I-MARTIN, Xavier; (1999), “I Just Run Two Million Regressions”,
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 87(2),
ss. 178–83.
STOKEY, Nancy L.; (1991), “Human Capital, Product Quality, and Growth,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, ss.587–616.TABAN, Sami ve Muhsin KAR; (2006), “Beşeri Sermaye ve Ekonomik Büyüme:
Nedensellik Analizi 1969-2001”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal
Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (1), ss. 161-181.
TSEN, Wong Hock; (2006), “Granger Causality Tests Among Openness to
International Trade, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic
Growth in China: 1952 -1999,” International Economic Journal,
20(3), ss. 285-302.
TÜRKIYE İSTATISTIK KURUMU (TUİK), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-
2007, Aralık 2008, Ankara, 720s.
VISWANATH, Jandhyala, K. L. N. REDDY ve Vishwanath PANDIT; (2009),
“Human Capital Contributions to Economic Growth in India: An
Aggregate Production Function Analysis”, The Indian Journal Of
Industrial Relations, 44(3), ss. 473-486.
YOUNG, Alwyn; (1991), “Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of
International Trade,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, ss.
369–405.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com